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Dejour Energy Inc. Message Board

  • xliangwen xliangwen Nov 30, 2012 6:15 PM Flag

    will SEJ miss its promises this time?

    Put your guess or comment here with reasonable thinking.

    For me, I almost 100% believe it will deliver its promises this time before year end: KOKO and S. Rangeley production, Roan Creek farm-out/sale and 700BOE from woodrush. Because these promises were set just two months before the delivery date.

    If they miss the promises this time any investor including myself will think every thing they are saying is lying

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    • To be honest, I think part of why people are #$%$ off is because you keep saying in a couple weeks, in a couple weeks and then nothing happens. Concerning press release, if they deliver all 4 items you speak of (big if) we'll go straight to .80 pps. Understand them trying to save money but what a PIA for investors who look forward to transparency to make good investment choices. When timing and plans change, I just look to the CEO purchases and the asset value of the company - fk what other people say and the rest. CEO and family just baught and asset value is much higher than current valuation. All the other stuff is noise.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I think every oil and gas company on the planet has missed numerous projections from time to time. I also think sometimes circumstances prevail and companies have to adjust accordingly. My largest energy holding is ConocoPhillips and even they have backtracked on projections and goals as circumstances have changed from time to time. And I understand that.

      When you have a couple of guys running a company who have 60 years of experience in the industry between them, it's reasonable to assume they haven't gotten this far because they are crooks or liars. My point is that while I admit there are some frustrations and I will not be dismissive of those frustrations and setbacks, I also think it's unfair to launch charges at management that it's a nest of crooks. I just don't characterize it that way.

      I think it should be reiterated that natural gas "liquids" prices are and have been depressed, so management is making the right decision by pushing back on its drilling plans at Kokopelli. Sure, the leasehold preservation well will indeed be put into production soon and the liquids retrieved from that well will of course add to the company's overall BOEPD number. But NGL prices and the Williams pipeline construction (though this isn't a huge deal) are beyond management's control. As commodity prices fluctuate, companies adjust accordingly, whether you're talking about Dejour or even a much bigger player such as Chesapeake. There's nothing wrong with that. It's a no-brainer, actually.

      South Rangely's well also will be pushed into production, the Roan Creek farm-out appears all but done and Woodrush's fourth quarter production has indeed increased, though whether it will reach 700 BOEPD by December 31 remains to be seen.

      We know that Kokopelli is an outstanding asset. So that's in the hip pocket. Management feels supremely confident that it will receive comparable liquids at Kokopelli to the volume of liquids being produced by nearby Williams and Bill Barrett at their respective Gibson Gulch projects. We know that South Rangely is a NGL producer and management feels confident there is considerable oil to be had there, and they're encouraged by the private drilling operation (13 wells) just to the west of the South Rangely property. I think it's imperative that in 2013 management raises funds (through a JV) to get the horizontal done at South Rangely and the 3-D completed at North Rangely. If indeed Dejour gets the HZ drilled at South Rangely and this play begins to produce oil, then in my judgment that's a major game-changer for the company. It's a completely different company and stock.

      I don't think we're sitting here in December of 2013 and Dejour will be a 3,000 BOEPD company at that point, but I do think the company can show substantial progress in 2013 by getting one to two additional wells drilled at Kokopelli, higher production rates at Woodrush, the horizontal drilled at South Rangely and a 3-D done at North Rangely. Those are more than reasonable goals. Get that done and those events alone will serve as a huge source of encouragement for investors and prospective investors.

      I frequently remind myself that this company is still trading FAR below its book value, so when Hodgkinson sells out in 2014 (in my opinion he will), I think longs will be in good shape, regardless.

      People don't want to hear about the labor. They just want you to show them the baby, so again, get Woodrush up, 1-2 more wells at Koko, drill the HZ at SR and get the 3-D done at NR and this is a different ballgame for all involved in my judgment. It's not like these are unreasonable objectives. I'm going to continue to sit back, watch and wait until I get my price. And I anticipate that happening in 2014, possibly later.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • This is a disaster -- what make you think anything will change after five years!!! Promises, promises, lies, lies -- I have lived with it. Meanwhile opportunities fly by!!!

      I am out on Monday!!

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