for quarter before adjustments dcf was $38.7 mm or .53 unit which is 27% of 1.92. over last two years 2nd quarter range from that reported as part of parent GP was low of 31% for quarter to high of 54% of total annual extrapolated DCF with a weighted rate adjusted for unplanned downtime end of 2010 of 35%. so if second quarter was 27% indicates if they make 1.92 may be by the skin of their teeth as will need prices to stay very strong and cannot afford any unplanned down time.
if that proves to be valid that they barely make it what happens when they are down for planned downtime in 4th quarter of 2012. how difficult could it be to meet 1.92
disclousure i sold my final units other day with average right at 24 over the period i started selling since distribution announcement
decided will take a long wait and see on their expansion, etc. best of wishes to all of those riding it out but just to risky for me as I am a pure income investor.
I'm still sticking with my thought that DCF lags EBITDA by 45-60 days (I'll know for sure when full financials are released) which would allow for 3Q distribution to be healthy enough to support the guidance. Still, it is a new company in terms of managing guidance and press releases - so there's a risk to be sure.
Also remember that they open book 6 months out, so barring the unforeseen, they should have a pretty good grip on numbers through 4Q.
Gonna take time to tell the whole story on this one...