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Mercadolibre, Inc. Message Board

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  • yelyacs yelyacs Nov 17, 2009 12:54 PM Flag

    The longer we stay above 45.00, WE WILL ROCKET HIGHER

    speaking of technicals noted technician Louise Yamada gave an interesting Bloomberg interview last Fri

    http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Yamada%20Interview%20on%20Precious%20Metals%2C%20Stocks%2C%20Dollar%20&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vu4ORcVZzQ_4.asf

    her technical indicators see gold outperforming stocks (gold resistance 1300-1550), SP500 inching higher and meeting resistance at 1200, dollar continuing to depreciate. Notably she sees small/midcaps starting to underperform.

    Thats the big picture, suggests theres room for mkts (and in concert MELI) to move up.

    As for fundamentals- Bz retail sales volumes up a fifth month in a row in September, trend helps MELI as Bz has been MELI's weakest segment in terms of USD revenue growth this year.

    On the macro front, Japan and others just announced more stimulus, Obama likely to come out with a "jobs creation" stimulus next year, Fed avowing to keep rates low, US printing money boosting liquidity, money managers chasing performance- all this could concert to further inflate stock prices in short/mid term.

    On the forex front, weak dollar strengthens Bz real, but MELI's bottom line has not benefited from real appreciation this year - I'm guessing MELI regularly converts local currency from sales into US dollars- and Bz gov talking of more measures to slow appreciation of real (seen how much an iphone costs on mercadolivre?!). Probably not a positive for Bz's mkt Bovespa.

    So overall climate mixed, I'm personally cautiously optimistic, not selling meli here but have 15% of my portfolio in cash, will raise more if mkt keeps going higher.

 
MELI
90.95-0.67(-0.73%)Jul 29 4:00 PMEDT

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