now that I think of it my est of rev for Q1 2010 too high, did not factor in deval on rev's. If I guess Q1 rev's come in at 58 million. I still guesstimate Q1 EPS coming in significantly below Q4 2009 EPS and net margin decreasing ~15%.
There are other possible effects of the deval on EPS I ignored- like how roaring stagflation in Vz will affect MELI's biz prospects there. Or how the new regulations affect MELI's accounting/use of dual exhange rates? Was meli using dual exchg rate to pad income, and if so can it still do so now? From MELI's 2008 report:
"Venezuela has a dual exchange rate system that includes an official exchange rate which was $2.15 “Bolivares Fuertes” per U.S.dollar at December 31, 2008, and a parallel exchange rate that was $5.4 “Bolivares Fuertes” per U.S. dollar at December 31, 2008. During 2008, we re-measured the fair value of our assets and liabilities in our Venezuelan subsidiaries at the parallel exchange rate (5.4 “Bolivares Fuertes” per US dollar as of December 31, 2008) resulting in a foreign currency gain of $5.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2008 and $3.6 million for all of 2008. The after tax positive effect on Net Income of the re-measurement was $3.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2008 and $ 2.4 million for all of 2008. "
and from Q3 2009 report:
"Our Venezuelan subsidiaries re-measure their foreign currency cash and cash equivalents and investments at the parallel exchange rate of 5.42 “Bolivares Fuertes” per US dollar. Since there is an observable market rate of exchange for securities traded in the parallel market, based on facts and circumstances, this market rate has been used for the re-measurement of foreign currency denominated transactions that could be settled through the parallel market mechanism. In the absence of unusual circumstances, the rate applicable to conversion of a currency for purposes of dividend remittances shall be used to translate foreign currency statements...The official exchange rate of 2.15 “Bolivares Fuertes” per US dollar is used for dividend remittance. The foreign currency effect generated by applying different exchange rates on the above mentioned assets has been accounted for in non-current other assets for a total amount of $11.2 million".