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Mercadolibre, Inc. Message Board

  • dav01545 dav01545 Feb 2, 2010 12:37 PM Flag

    ? stokker

    are we breaking out?????????

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    • Can't call it a breakout just yet. Especially on this low volume. But, the action has certainly changed in the last couple days. You have to have seller exhaustion first, before you can move on. We seem to have finally gotten there. The technicals are showing some light at the end of the tunnel. Like the MACD signal I have been poointing to has done an almost perfect flip flop in terms of standard deviation from the highs of $55+. That number got as high as +2.9877 (closing level) on the "red" line (the fast line) and the blue (slow line) as high as +2.6198. Last night's numbers were -2.9392 and -2.4706 respectively. Today, they are -2.8825 (not a closing level yet of course) and -2.4709. As you can see, the fast line is beginning to attempt a turn. We will see where it is at the close. TheStochastics also appear to be putting in a turn and a preliminary BUY signal today (it actually started yesterday). So, there is hope, but, we are not out of the woods yet. However, I stick to my call of continuing to accumulate on any decent pullbacks like we have seen virtually everyday lately. I expect a higher volume up move at some point relatively soon that should test resistance at about 43.50. We may chop between 36-40 until then.

      • 2 Replies to stokker3
      • price chart shows the downtrend broken at least for now. a line fits the bottoms of a 15' chart of the last 15 days, making a beautiful down-slanting trend line and that trend was broken to the upside yesterday, MELI bounced twice now off of a near-term low of 37.6 right below the 200 day exponential moving avg of 38.3. I bought shares yesterday under 38

        the 100 day ema is 42.7, 50 day ema 44.6 a little under where Vz deval dropped share price, I'd expect resistance around there

        200 day simple moving avg is 35.3 and rising, that could be support if mkt resumes selloff after this relief rally. But todays action could be the start of the pattern called for by some analysts- namely a series of selloffs/rises that will see the SP500 oscillate between 1000-1250-ish in an overall flat-ish 2010? Who knows not me but from a valuation perspective I don't see price breaking 35 in the absence of a sharp market correction or earnings that beats less than 10% (meli usually beats by 20% or more)

        ps agreed davo cash flow is a key metric for meli. How do you see MELI's P/CF comparing to the mkt right now?

      • "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful." -- Warren Buffett

 
MELI
132.15-1.85(-1.38%)1:13 PMEDT