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Mercadolibre, Inc. Message Board

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  • yelyacs yelyacs Feb 2, 2010 7:25 PM Flag

    ? stokker

    price chart shows the downtrend broken at least for now. a line fits the bottoms of a 15' chart of the last 15 days, making a beautiful down-slanting trend line and that trend was broken to the upside yesterday, MELI bounced twice now off of a near-term low of 37.6 right below the 200 day exponential moving avg of 38.3. I bought shares yesterday under 38

    the 100 day ema is 42.7, 50 day ema 44.6 a little under where Vz deval dropped share price, I'd expect resistance around there

    200 day simple moving avg is 35.3 and rising, that could be support if mkt resumes selloff after this relief rally. But todays action could be the start of the pattern called for by some analysts- namely a series of selloffs/rises that will see the SP500 oscillate between 1000-1250-ish in an overall flat-ish 2010? Who knows not me but from a valuation perspective I don't see price breaking 35 in the absence of a sharp market correction or earnings that beats less than 10% (meli usually beats by 20% or more)

    ps agreed davo cash flow is a key metric for meli. How do you see MELI's P/CF comparing to the mkt right now?

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    • Yelyacs you are correct about the short-term trend having been broken in the last couple days. But, the other downtrend line may still present resistance for the stock. Draw a line from the absolute peak of the double top, to the top of what looked like may have been the "handle" of the cup that was eventually broken. That puts the line at about $42.60 tomorrow and around $41.90 the next day. A break of that will be even more bullish. Any decent pullbacks should be used as a buying opportunity. The technicals look great. We may even get a MACD Signal "BUY" tomorrow. By next week we may see a buy signal from the weekly stochastic as well. Stay tuned!

 
MELI
135.08+0.07(+0.05%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT