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ClickSoftware Technologie (CKSW) Message Board

  • Fujigrower Fujigrower Jan 11, 2011 10:53 AM Flag

    The Sky is Falling yet again? 10 thoughts...

    1. As microcap tech investor my preference is for a company to meet or beat guidance.

    2. As a microcap tech investor, I learned a long time ago that even well run companies sometimes miss targets. Falling 5% short (ie $18 vs. $20 million) in a 90 day period is not the end of the world. Ask any experienced business executive if his/her revenue has ever fallen 5% short of expectations.

    3. As a long term CKSW investor, how much revenue the company recognizes in any 90 day period is not a big concern. What I am looking for are inflection points in customer demand... particularly with Click's 3 new revenue growth engines; ClickMobile, ClickRoster and Service Tycoon.

    4. Q4 revenues tell an investor where Click has been. New customer wins indicate where Click is going. "Q4 new business bookings were strong and well above Q4 revenues" is one positive indicator. So is a sizable transaction with a large utility company and being informed of another significant win. Do these represent an inflection point? No. Solid progress? Yes.

    5. Click's revenue stream has always been lumpy and will continue to be lumpy. Moshe emphasizes this point in every conference call. It is not a secret. Any investor who doesn't like lumpy results should sell their Click shares and find a more stable investment. Putting cash in a savings account and withdrawing it through an ATM is one option.

    6. If the blood curdling screams and gnashing of teeth on the chatboard sound familiar, reread posts after any of Click's OMG share price drops over the past five years, including recent plunges below $2 in March of 2009 and $5 this June.

    While a falling share price is no fun, the sharp drops were in fact excellent buying opportunities. At $7.75 per share Click is still trading above, and in most cases well above, what 95%+ of investors paid for their shares over the past five years.

    7. Investors who drove the share price above $9 last week may have been expecting blow out Q4 results. Maybe. It is also possible some of them were simply long term investors who believe in Click's long term potential. f they liked CKSW shares above $9 they should be delighted at the opportunity Ito buy below $8.

    8. I still like the company's long term upside potential vs. downside risk. I last added to my CKSW position when the share price was below $6 this summer. This morning I am buying more. Proof once again that a fool and his money are soon parted.

    9. I don't believe Click is a too-da-moon stock. The company's inherently long sales cycles preclude that. And Click has plenty of downside risk, particularly if the company's customer demand and revenue stream falters in 2011.

    10. The value of our Click shares will ultimately be determined by how much value Click is delivering to its customers. If their schedule optimization and mobility software modules are generating real improvements in efficiency and customer service, then Click's revenue stream will ultimately climb above $100 million and the share price into double digits.

    If Click solutions begin generating more confusion than improvement for customers, then long term investors will be on the Titanic and the sooner one gets in a lifeboat, the better.

    Good luck to everyone.

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