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ClickSoftware Technologie (CKSW) Message Board

  • perajacobsen perajacobsen Apr 24, 2013 8:57 AM Flag

    Headlines again...

    All,

    So the quarterly results and the reiteration of guidance are quite good and fully in line with the earlier Y-E-A-R-L-Y guidance.

    Of course, it may not matter, because, as usual, the headlines are already there, stating that ClickSoftware misses on revenues.

    The "miss" of course is not against guidance, but, rather, against analyst estimates, which, as we know, are mostly meaningless and frequently simply the result of a simple division of the annual guidance into four equal chunks.

    And, so, the headlines may again rule the day. The only difference appear to be that the market actually, for the first time ever, I think, anticipated that the first quarter -- as usual -- would NOT be equal to one fourth of the year, and may, in fact, have over-compensated/over-reacted.

    Best,

    pajacosen

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    • I don't see how they can make the guidance... they will have to turn in $35M + Q's... given Q1 that doesn't look likely.... I don't think Mr. Market will think so either... but we will see....

      Cheers

      • 2 Replies to flying_trader
      • Flying_trader,

        I am not quite sure that I understand your comment. You said: "I don't see how they can make the guidance... they will have to turn in $35M + Q's... given Q1 that doesn't look likely.... I don't think Mr. Market will think so either... but we will see..."

        Looking purely at the number isn't the year-end revenue remainder $95.5 million, or, $31.8 million per quarter, to hit the lower end guidance of $120 million? Quite a bit less than +$35 million. Even at the $125 million guidance, the requirement is for $33.5 million...

        Best,

        pajacobsen

      • New apps ordered by new customers and run on most anything will generate significant revenue A few large contracts or a large bank or two will help. Moshe's is smart and conservative and if he says so it will be done, but don't expect anything more

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I dont understand your comment and how it reconiles to the fact that since last fall, click has been saying wait until the back half of 2013. Analysts get to talk to management and can do things like channel checks that I cannot. I doubt moshe is going to take my call.

      • 2 Replies to rmm3165
      • Rmm,

        I am not sure that I understand your question or comment. You wrote: "I dont understand your comment and how it reconiles to the fact that since last fall, click has been saying wait until the back half of 2013. Analysts get to talk to management and can do things like channel checks that I cannot. I doubt moshe is going to take my call."

        Unfortunately, generally, I do not have much respect for institutional analysts, but I am not sure that this it the point that you are making.

        My point is that, to my mind, ClickSoftware's Q1 results were satisfying. Unfortunately, however, when I log into my brokerage accounts I see summary headlines that contains the words "miss" and "revenues." This is unfortunate -- and, I think, unfair -- since the company has made no quarterly forecast and, therefore, per definition *cannot* miss.

        In fact when I read beyond the headlines, I see that this miss is actually relative to the analysts consensus, which, frankly, as I indicated above, I don't respect much, rather than to the company's guidance.

        I have been with ClickSoftware for a while now, and, so, this is beginning to be a repeatable -- and tiresome -- pattern, with the analysts and the market continuing to break the yearly guidance into quarters although there is no basis for such breakdown (in fact the opposite... I would expect revenues and margins to accelerate towards the end of the year.) Unfortunately, this self-imposed failure results in headlines, which is quite annoying.

        That is all I was trying to say. If I was not clear, I apologize.

        Best,

        pajacobsen

      • And the back half of 2013 starts in a little over 60 days.

    • Will you add or re-enter with this earning report and guidance. Thanks.

 
CKSW
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