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ClickSoftware Technologie (CKSW) Message Board

  • thegunnerab thegunnerab Sep 12, 2013 5:53 PM Flag

    Spoke to IR today

    I called and spoke to IR today in Israel.

    I was told the selling has nothing to do with the company financials.
    In any case, it's too early to know with three weeks to go in the quarter.

    They think it's related to Mr. Carmeli resignation and a large share holder decided to sell his position.

    I would love to hear from Fuji and his thoughts on the recent price action.

    I'm just the messenger,

    The Gunner

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • well you'll never get a actionable word from IR. Just usual fluff that all is great. This situation really comes down to whether the shift to subscriptions is really the problem. When a $1M license turns into a $50K monthly subscription, your revenue is going to suffer short-term. Unfortunately the market is never able to handle such a shift without selling on the news. The key is whether the stock is soon entering a buy point. Hard to tell, but an exec leaving isn't a good sign.

      Reminds me last year of IRBT where everybody though robotics was dead and now its a hot stock.

    • Gunner,

      As a fellow software engineer, I can respect your technical knowledge by profession. But as an investor you suck BIG time. I guess I can relate to that because I used to be like you. It could be because software engineers always view everything as "fixable" (even if it means coming up with a hack). But the fact is, when it comes to investing, you have to understand that when something has gone wrong, you need to fold and run (or at least sit on the side, observer and using your engineering logic decide when would be a good time to wet your feet again).

      CLick is in such a situation. When I purchased at $8.40 earlier this year listening to Management's B.S how great the second half of the year was going to be, I was dreaming of cashing in the $13-$15/shr by now. When they reported a loss which was shocking to me, I bailed out, took a hit in the $7.12-$7.6/shr, took my money invested in MGIC and sat on the side. I covered my loss (thanks to MGIC and then some). And still sitting on the side but eager to jump in when things have settled (after this quarter's report).

      When management lies to its share holders (or at best miscalculated its own business model and not seeing how things are changing right under their nose), it is a BAD sign (this is what I tried to tell you when you were mocking me as I sold out. I even gave you the example of SPNS and how I learned from that bad experience over 20 years ago, and you mocked me with some smartass comments! But I said that was OK, let him have his fun.

      If I were in your shoes, I would probably sell out the moment the stock hits $6.25/shr (and rest assured it will as the bounce back will happen soon). But rest assured, this stock will tank into the low-mid $5's for a long long time (and may even touch the $4's once this quarter's report come out). Q3 is a loss. It is written all over the wall. Click's business model has shifted to a subscription based far quicker than they'd imagined.They are not ready for it yet.

    • Thanks Gunner...

      If all is OK with the company one would think they could have managed this a bit better...Here again we see the need for a Stock Buy Back program that can be used in situations like this to defend the price... Don't ya know a big potential customer who sees that CKSW stock price is tanking, their VP resigned vs TOA which is putting out all the fluff and flowers telegraphing that their sales are growing 20+% per year yadda yadda ...

      CKSW doesn't think their PPS action is important... they just don't get it... it affects more than just the owners of the company...

      Moshie needs an MBA.. ha..

      Where is that guy that use to be on the board and would always say "big news on Monday..." we need him back if only to console us over the weekend...

      Well, there is always next week...

    • I have been investing many years now and when something like this happens the last place to get an answer is the IR department. All we can do is wait. There will probably be some articles in the Israel business press tomorrow. Doubt they will say anything as to why the plunge took place.

    • mtrust75 Sep 12, 2013 6:00 PM Flag

      honestly did u expect " yeah we are F'd this quarter and a few smart rats heard the leak and are getting off before we hit the burg"

      come on. this company cant be trusted for anything. They gave us a mountain of BS at the begining of the year and its gone to pot since then.

      they need to be sold, bring on all new upper management, or actually hit the humbers out of the damn park

      • 2 Replies to mtrust75
      • It is hard to "assess the mess" without using the word cluster

      • I agree they need to be sold.
        I don't think the selling is company business related. I owned Click shares in 2010 when they were actually doing really well !!

        The stock price kept dropping from $8 to $5 and when it hit $5 in the summer of 2010, there was a large trade signaling the exit of a large institutional investor.

        From that point and on, the stock kept climbing and by the end of the year, stock price had climbed to $10...

        When an Institution wants to get out, especially on a small cap like Click, they can bring the price down violently. The other way is true too, look at Soros buying in and taking the price to $13.

        The Gunner

        Sentiment: Buy

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