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ClickSoftware Technologie (CKSW) Message Board

  • lisaaleigh lisaaleigh Sep 24, 2013 4:33 AM Flag

    CKSW is not

    A short term investment. This company reminds me of three previous investments. Novatel, Drexler/Lasercard and Manatron. All were long slogs, but eventually very profitable. This may go down to five or up to eight short term, but why care? If you are day trading, wrong company. Generally management doesn't give a hoot about the share price. they are generally in it for the long haul. So a thinly traded stock like CKSW floats and sinks at the whim of any entity willing to buy or sell a few thousand shares. It's meaningless. Unless the volume hits 500,000 in a day, you can assume that almost all of the shareholders are content to hold their shares. What does that tell you. The thing about Click that intrigues me is the potential for nice cash flow, which ultimately will put this company on somebodies radar screen. All three of the companies I mentioned earlier were bought out. Novatel went from $2.00 (where I bought) to $50.00 at buyout, but it didn't happen overnight. My suggestion is if you have time, and the money, buy on the dips and only check the price once in a while. If you make this a daily obsession, this stock ( or any stock like it ) will drive you crazy. I think the growth curve is pretty sustainable and a couple of years from now those with patience will be rewarded. That said, I really don't like the present management. But I could say the same about STKL and that's gone from $1.00 to $10.00. It ain't a perfect world. A New York Giant (and Yankee) fan.

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    • Lisaaleigh,

      Your reminder on long term investing is refreshing and appreciated. Warren Buffett would smile and nod. November marks my tenth year as a Click investor. Manatron was also in my portfolio for ten years.

      There is more than one way to skin the cat and many investors are successful using shorter term trading strategies. I'm just not smart enough to be on that list.

      Click was more fun at $13 than it is at $6 but the best buying opportunities have always been when investors stampede toward the downside.

      Click's leadership team is far less-than-perfect but they are competent, very committed and step-by-step built Click into the market leader in their niche. I like their chances of getting back on track and returning to double digits. And if by chance that doesn't happen, Moshe will find a buyer rather than allow the company implode. That limits the downside risk.

      Good luck to everyone.

      Fujigrower

    • revup_cashflowpos_0debt_grtprod revup_cashflowpos_0debt_grtprod Sep 25, 2013 3:45 PM Flag

      Sold the the 4K shares I bough a few days ago (under $6) for a little profit today -- enough profit to pay for eating out at lunch time about 100 times. Not great but nothing like a free lunch.

    • Can't say there is much of value in the post. This stock has not been driven by low foat action. This market is very different than the companies mentioned. This valuation could be considered generous as compare to finanical performance over the past 4 years. The reasons may be understandable but if you have a lack of confidence in management, the decision to ignore the share price seems quite illogical.

      Revenues have increased from about $60m to C13 consensus of $110m over the past 5 yrs.
      Market cap has stayed basically flat. Why this disconnect?
      nonGAAP per share was $0.41 in C09 and is projected to be $0.11 this year.

      What current or projected investors need to ask is if this is caused by an investment strategy or shift in business that will result in better performance in future. Any decision to ignore price action and justify a long position based upon some future improvement in cash from or an acqusition seems pretty naive. I keep an eye on this company because their product fits a need in the market. Until the trend shifts to show me some improved fundamentals going forward, I can't justify putting money to work so I wait.

      • 3 Replies to marty.chilberg
      • If you bought Click four years ago and held on you made somewhere in the mid 60 percent range total return. On the other hand if you had simply put your money in an index fund that follows the S&P 500 you would have just about doubled your money. I find it amazing that their are people who will not like somebody and not give them a penny on the street, but will hand thousands and thousands of dollars to a management they don't like. You have hit the nail on the head. I bought shares in 2009 around four bucks when click made the 60 million in revenue up from 54 million and made the 41 in nongaap profit UP from 24. That was the time to be buying. Not now with our first quarterly loss. As I posted many times before, yes sales are up BUT EXPENSES ARE UP MORE THAN THE GROSS MARGIN THE SALES ARE PRODUCING. Expenses growing faster than gross margin is not a recipe for success. People just don't want to be told and don't want to accept a mistake. Stock investing is worst when its psychological. You buy and sell at the exact wrong times. When will all these buy and hold people finaly get out??? When most of their money is gone and they have finaly given up. Thas what happens. I have seen more than my share of people lose their nest egg with buy and hold and on the other end of the spectrum day trading. Things have changed at click from 2009. The company has spent a boatload of cash that has not brought fruition. Cash is being burned now not accumulated. All while management dilutes the equity investor. If I told clicks story now to some buy and hold people I doubt they would jump in now. That's what you have to ask yourself at every turn. If I was a new investor is this where I would put my money.

      • Marty,

        Good stuff as usual.

        You wrote: "Revenues have increased from about $60m to C13 consensus of $110m over the past 5 yrs. Market cap has stayed basically flat. Why this disconnect? nonGAAP per share was $0.41 in C09 and is projected to be $0.11 this year."

        I believe that the recent blip(s) should be ignored in answering your question -- a safe thing to do, I think, since your question is fundamentally one of a +5 year systemic issue.

        Taking the blip(s) out, the first (and primary) issue that I see is the consistent annual dilution, which has been troubling for a while and has effectively cancelled out the resulting GAAP gains over the period. This lead me to the second issue, which -- in my opinion -- is that the nonGAAP versus GAAP classification is a construct.

        Simply put, the classification primarily obfuscates the dilution (I don't have the exact number numbers, but I think (from memory) that the the GAAP EPS, exclusive of extraordinary items and on a diluted share basis, have been swinging from 0.40 to 0.28 to 0.38 to 0.23 in 2012. And this year, the two first quarters amounts to -0.09.)

        So, for me the dilution is the real problem, systematically eating up the EPS, and, so, to the extent that market capitalization expresses the market opinion of those who are not benefiting from the dilution (i.e. insiders,) the capitalization *should* not advance -- in fact it should retreat.

        There are, of course, many moving parts, but, in my opinion, the best step that ClickSoftware can take to grow the market capitalization is to stop the dilution. However, given the remarkably careful calibration of the dilution, I don't see that happening, and, so, we are stuck with excessive demands for sustained growth of the top and bottom-line -- something that ClickSoftware is having trouble with.

        Best,

        pajacobsen

      • Based on your theory, the best time to buy Click was in the low teens when the company business was hitting on all cylinders.

        If you bought then, you lost 50% on your investment.

        Buy low sell high, does is it sound familiar?

        The Gunner

        Sentiment: Buy

    • When you say: "CKSW is not a short term investment". Can you please advise as what your definition of long term is? (2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 30 years, 50 years...)? If you go back to late Sept./early Oct of 2007, you notice that CKSW was trading in the low $6's - exactly where we are today. Of course in between the stock somehow managed to get to $13/shr too, and unless an investor of 2007 (or prior) had a target price of $13/shr and sold out, they really have not gotten much out of CKSW over the past 6 years.

      On the other hand for any short term investor CKSW offered plenty of opportunities to make money over and over.

      Anyway.... Just something to take into account when considering the statement: "CKSW is NOT a short term investment". :)-

 
CKSW
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