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Columbia Laboratories, Inc. Message Board

  • stvwingert stvwingert Nov 1, 2012 2:23 PM Flag

    Risk/reward at this price

    If everyone can clear the blurred thinking from the shock of seeing the stock at 60 cents, there is some major value here. The 10 cents a share in forecast earnings for next year is very realistic, given that (I think) this projection was made without including any Prochieve sales. The last earnings report showed they are clearly capable of making that $37 million sales projection for the next year. They keep saying they see strong growth in in-market sales, and the whole ACOG/UNH etc. endorsements will likely fuel more off label crinone growth for the Prochieve purpose. In the last 2 conference calls I recall them saying they forsee growth for "years to come" (even if Prochieve is never approved).

    Coming back to that 10 cents per share (tax free) earnings forecast, that is effectively a p/e ratio of THREE, given that 30 cents of the stock price is already cash that could be returned to shareholders. If you don't like my pulling the cash out of the current market cap, you still are looking at a p/e of 6..and with growth to boot.

    I also recall something about Merck looking into an international Prochieve potential.

    I'm not sure how serious the patent formulation issues are in 2013-2015..I assume they think they/Watson can reformulate to avoid this being a problem, or else they wouldn't have been saying things like "growth for years to come".

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    • 37M is 9M a q they haven't been at that level (with the royalty model) and it remains to be seen if they can hit that number with any regularity. One little hiccup and they are smoke. I would expect weak quarters along the way. If they fall short the market has no sympathy. Believe me after 20+ years invested here this company has a real good history of falling short. It's a Maxwell Smart..missed it by that much...short!

    • I think you are right about low expectation of Prochieve sales after reading accounts at Their other 4 drugs are the bread winners and last weeks news would hit Watson more than CBRX as I see it. No bad news to really affect weird price of today so I chalk it up as plain manipulation to steal shares.

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