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Columbia Laboratories, Inc. Message Board

  • stvwingert stvwingert Mar 15, 2013 3:03 PM Flag

    cc analysis

    Watson/Actavis will be good for about $4 million in royalties for the current year. That's about 5 cents a share with no direct costs attached to it. No material other revenue expected from Watson, but this was very low margin. Watson/Acatavis is promoting Crinone, shooting for 10%+ annual growth for the next few years.

    Merck business is going strong at quite high profit margins. Merck endocrinology team is "keen on growing Crinone". China expected to keep growing, France and Japan may come on line in the next couple years. The best part of the cc, in my opinion, was that CBRX expects to continue their relationship with Merck for a number of years. The 10-k has the same language as last year regarding Merck margins contracting if they bring production in house later in 2015, but management certainly seems encouraged about the future of the Merck relationship.

    Expenses expected to drop further. In my opinion this will be most noticeable once we don't have to pay Cowen any more.

    Cowen evidently found something to buy, but it fell through in Feb. It is good the they aren't rushing into a poor acqusition. I prefer prudence. They do not plan on borrowing or issuing low priced stock for an acquisition, but rather using cash to buy more annual cash flow/profits.

    With the Actavis royalties, and Merck revenue and growth, 10 cents a share seems quite a reasonable estaimate for 2013 profits. One key here is they mentioned more than once that they exepect growth from these levels for a "number of years". If they succeed in using the cash to buy an additional profit stream, those earnings estimates can rise.

 
CBRX
7.620.00(0.00%)Mar 13 3:59 PMEDT