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Ancestry.com Inc. Message Board

  • addedupon1 addedupon1 Mar 1, 2011 10:22 AM Flag

    This is Brutal.

    he who raised the question about family history: fad vs long term growing trend is likely right.

    i have little to no doubt that worldwide interest in ancestry reseach will grow rapidly for decades to come and suppose that a number of short sellers believe otherwise. shorts don't need to be right; they only need to shake the faith of the believers.

    the more immediate question may be: can the ACOM stock price remain irrational longer than i can remain solvant or longer than i can comfortably hold on? i added today so the stock is now approaching 15% of my portfolio, unprecedented for me and painful at the moment.

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    • I agree completely, this market has confounded many technical analysts. When there is such an obvious chart pattern that everyone sees, it can become a trap.

      However, a good trader will allow the market to change his mind on a daily basis. I admit I went to cash in July 2009. Only 4 months removed from the horrific bear market, who can blame anybody for being defensive at that time?

      The H&S pattern did break down but it reversed a few days later. Then SPX broke through a a descending trendline and its 50-day average on 7/23. Smart traders were no longer bearish. Those who got out on the H&S breakdown but later got back in on the 7/23 follow thru missed a 6% move. A small price to pay for being defensive, given that the market went on to much bigger gains.

      Right now, this market is in a correction. Buying and holding stocks is a risk. Nobody knows where we will bottom. Maybe today, maybe 10% lower. The market will tell us when it is safe again.

    • Like it or not Google is The WalMart of Tech http://next.ind.in/2011/03/google-the-walmart-of-tech/

    • though i could be wrong, i do believe that ACOM has an enduring cometitive advantage. i missed NFLX because i didn't understand it and still don't understand its competitive threats. i think i do grasp the ACOM model and believe it has enourmous potential. have concern about whether leadership is big enough to bring this company to its full potential. it takes a giant CEO to built a giant company.

      it was the one in a million genius of a Gates, Jobs, Besos, Schawb, Page, etc that brought those ideas to their full potential. companies grow or shrink to the size of their leadership over time. ACOM can continue to snowball for a while on the momentum of its remarkably untapped latent market. but if ACOM does not have a large enough figure at the top, it shall be overtaken.

      if management can't be upgraded (Eric Schmidt would do), sell the whole thing to facebook or google. this thing is too good the pass up. still buying on weakness.

    • >>>>Curious, you believe that being on the sidelines in 2008 was not a good strategy?<<<<<

      do you believe that moving to the sidelines in the summer of 2009 when the TA world asserted the well defined S&P head&shoulders was certain to take us down. how many TA believers went to the sidelines during the last two false alarms created by the dreaded "hindenburg omen."

      sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn't, imo.

      by biggest holdings during the crash were BIDU that dropped to $11, APPL went down to $70s, and PCLN that crashed to $49. i admit to sharply cutting my holdings in these stocks before they reached the lows. big mistake in retrospect. i believed in the leadership and the enduring competitive advantage of those companies but i was concerned about the future of civilization.

      the chart people were telling us to sell in summer, 2009. i'm sure they had some influence because a furious rally ensued when the S&P broke out of the soothsayer's ominous pattern.

    • This is not bad i have been DCA this stock with a big purchase around 30 and change on monday. I wont sell because they are profitable when that stops then you need to worry I learned to really read balance sheets and it helps. Stay long be greedy since evryone is scared this stock will be much higher in 18 mos. I think the big boys took it down and are building positions today, plus i think they will get purchased within 18 months

    • Hate to say it, from a TA perspective, ACOM chart is very ugly.

      The warning shot was the breakdown prior to earnings. The failed breakout after earnings trapped more longs. The subsequent drop below the 50-day shows institutions are bailing out. Finally today we lost the 9/10/2010 trendline.

      The markets today are confirming what many feared, that the rebound since last week's selloff on low volume is just a bear flag and the market will pull back further.

      Personally I feel it is likely we have entered a correction that will take us to around 1,286 on the S&P which is about 1.5% lower from here. That would be a pullback of 4.2% from the highs, which is typical in a bull market.

      If that level should fail we could be in for a steeper correction. The market has come a long way since September so it would not be surprising.

      ACOM is a broken stock now. There may be a short-term bounce s we tested the 100 SMA today. I would sell if it gets back to the 50 SMA on lower volume (around 33.70 now). I will not be surprised to see ACOM back around 27 if the correction does run deeper.

      I took a loss on this one but glad I got out before earnings.

      Good luck to all.

    • >>>the more immediate question may be: can the ACOM stock price remain irrational longer than i can remain solvant or longer than i can comfortably hold on?<<<<

      the ACOM stock price can remain irrational only as long investors can remain ignorant of the enormity of the latent demand and passion for ancestry information.

      the way i see it, only rotten management can mess this company up and then it can only decline when a worthy competitor emerges. management looks good but if that changes, Google, Facebook, Yahoo, or somebody will swoop it up.

      don't see how you can lose on this stock over time.

    • I'm long, but that probably wasn't a good move. This stock is turning into a falling knife...and on no news. Never a good sign.

      • 1 Reply to depdoofie
      • My guess is someone (big institution) is unloading his shares. He started selling into strength on the day the stock popped 10% which is the way institutions operate. That in turn triggered a trendline break that brought in some short sellers. I think we will bottom in the high 20's then quickly work higher to the mid 30's. All of the fundamentals were above expectation so I'm sitting tight. It remains one of my forty positions. As a policy, however, I do not add to positions, but I can see others doing so on this decline.

 

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