I can't justify why ACOM fell from 38 to 31 from mid-Feb to the end of April, nor can I justify why it made it all back, and then some, yesterday. I can, however, justify on a fundamental basis why it trades at 45. It is growing its EBITDA at 40% per yaer and trading at about 15x current year EBITDA. That is an incredibly low multiple for a high growth internet stock. As a multiple or EBITDA it trades at a huge discount to OPEN, for instance. A year from now if it trades at 15x 2012 EBITDA, the stock will be in the mid-60s. OPEN is growing EBITDA only slightly faster, 50% per year. It rades at a 45x EBITDA multiple. Put another way, OPEN is projected to generate about $55 million in EBITDA this year, only about 40% of what ACOM is expected to generate, and yet OPEN sports an enterprise value that is more tan 25% higher than ACOM. If/when ACOM is accorded the same multiple as similarly growing OPEN, it would trade at roughly 140. Reflect upon that my friends...
They have a monopoly on the niche market, and resigned with NBC for another season of "Who do you think you are?" That should translate into better then expected earnings, and if you compare this quarters earnings to same quarter, a year before you see a better picture of how fast the company is growing. The company is a small mid- cap and so any positive news can make it move. Internet stocks are a bullish sector as well.
They do not "have a monopoly in a niche market". They compete with paid websites Archives.com, WorldVitalRecords.com, GenealogyBank.com, and others. Mocavo.com has both paid and free options, while the LDS Church website, FamilySearch.org is totally free. However, right now, for both breadth and depth, as a paid website, I think they lead the pack.
yes this is an information stock in an interesting niche that also is linked & powers a very popular NBC show as you mention ...they've generated good revs so far with that crossing of both Web based & Network broadcasting exposure ...with very low costs .
Its the Google of Ancestry and prolly some goo Mormons in Provo UT were throwing some of "God's" money at it today too. ;O)