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Ancestry.com Inc. Message Board

  • champagnefrancis champagnefrancis Feb 14, 2012 6:10 PM Flag

    Jagad

    where are you getting your information that ACOM is still growing at a 30%+ clip a year? If so, that would be great. All I can find is an article on seekingalpha.com that says their growth is slowing into the high teens.
    If we get a big bump this year it will most likely come after 2nd quarter earnings. I do believe that was the report that sent the stock up over 40% in a day in 2011. If we get a bump like that it will be hard for me not to sell and buy back in Dec. since it looks like there is a seasonality to their growth and impatient investors will want to sell when things are quiet.
    thoughts?

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    • that guy has no credibility at all. he has been pumping this stock as a $150 stock since it was much higher than it is now. he is likely a naive twit but possibly something more sinister. what is certain is that he offers nothing helpful about this stock or about investing in general.

      • 1 Reply to addedupon1
      • So are you the same guy who doesn't understand Graham or the one who doesn't understand statistics. When you can actually try to understand the analysis I've done, or provide some of your own that indicates brain activity, post something that contributes to everyone's understanding of the possible futures of this corporation. Marchandsing offered cogent feedback. Asked interesting questions. And has engaged in useful debate.

        Go back and look at my revenue and earnings forecasts. You'll notice they are within a couple percent of actual results. According to the earnings report, they added 22% more subscribers. Revenues grew another 26%. Op and net income was up more than 50%. And the trailing PE is what, about 20x. Hmm.

        If the company continues to perform as it has, the stock price will eventually reflect that. Maybe not in time for you to buy presents for the next holiday, but then I'm investing, not gambling.

        I flipped a quarter and got heads. The stock will open down in the morning. 12-18 months from now, there is a much greater probability that the stock price will be higher than it is today than lower, as long as the company continues to do so well.

        JMHO
        Jag

    • I compute growth rates by looking at the reported revenues and reported earnings. My models assume that the past predicts the future, at least a little way into the future. I sell when a company ceases to meet or exceed my revenue forecast. and I only buy stocks that fit my regression model with an R^2 >0.95. In the case of ACOM, their R^2 is 0.97, with 1.00 being perfect.

      Over the course of the last twelve quarters, the first four yielded revenues of $217M and the last four produced $378M, a growth rate of 32% per year. If I extend this to the past 16 quarters, and using the first four ($191M) and last four ($$378M) is a CAGR of 26%. You can do the same thing with earnings, which have grown much faster.

      JMHO
      JAG

      • 1 Reply to jagad5
      • The other place I look is under the "Analysts Estimates" link on the quote page. I sometimes temper my growth rate if analysts are predicting big drops in growth rate.

        I buy stocks that seem to be trading for half the value their growth rate would suggest. My calculations show that the current price is indicative of about 7% growth so even if growth slows to 15-20%, I think it's cheap.

        JMOMHO
        Jag

    • Agreed, although I hope you're wrong... Feeling nervous about this since I'm in at $31.28. Thanks.