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Ancestry.com Inc. Message Board

  • marchansing marchansing Feb 16, 2012 1:06 PM Flag

    My Recommendation

    I sold this stock earlier, and for a heavy loss. I just wanted to come back and read some of these posts.

    My recommendation would be to look elsewhere for an investment vehicle. Think about it.. Is it not fair to say that there are a multitude of publicly-traded companies whose business model and outlook are much more appealing?

    I'm of the very strong opinion that Ancestry's leadership team is painting an overly-optimistic picture about their user-base growth in 2012. And as crazy as this sounds, I think you can almost hear the hesitation in their tones during the last few conference calls. I honestly don't believe they are sold on the prospects for growth. I would even go so far as to say that they don't have a good vision for future growth. They seem to be at a bit of a loss for real credible, growth-oriented ideas.

    A key indicator for future growth, from my perspective, is the negligible growth from 3Q 2011 to 4Q 2011. Hiring of a marketing manager and essentially 2 additional episodes of the tv program (2 of the 4 mentioned are repeats) whose ratings are down are not enough to generate further interest in Ancestry's service. Even additional mediums for advertising through partnerships with organizations such as FB will do little for the service.

    It is a very, very small subset of most populations here and abroad that seek to pay a premium for information on their lineage. A very, very small subset. I believe the user base will remain fairly constant from here on out, and the long-term share price of Ancestry will reflect that.

    Very short-term gains might be seen, but long-term potential is sketchy at best. And please be careful listening to the analysts. We all know how inaccurate the last few public opinions from analsyts were for this stock.

    My recommendation again is to look elsewhere and put this company behind you. Either way, best of success.

    Thank you.

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