Fact: Gross Subscribers in Q1 2012 vs Q1 2011 are down 35,000
Fact: Acquisition of 390,000 new suscribers cost an additional
$18.55 per subscriber for Q1 2012 vs Q1 2011
Fact: Monthly revenue per subscriber was up only $.44 for
1,870,000 subscribers. As an average, that is only
$5.28 / year / subscriber.
Unless ACOM can dramatically increae revenues / subscriber, the 2012 annual results will be comparable to 2011.
Also, I find the 10% increase in subscribers (170,000) to be suspect. Remember, they only grew their subscriber base by 2000 subscribers in Q4 2011!!! I highly doubt that the tv series created this start a contrast in subscriber growth. My opinion only, for what it's worth.
Fyi that I hold no positions in this stock, nor do I intend to hold postions!
Ask yourself what happens when that unique class of people who want to view their lineage dries up? The growth cannot continue at this pace.
I predict a share price under $15.00 by the year 2015.
You're such a simple-minded person, Twstd.
Like so many others before, you resort to name calling because you are incapable of an intellectual conversation. Anger and name calling is reserved for less intelligent people like yourself.
You lash out because you lack any form of coping mechanism. Anger is a primal emotion that wins over you every time. Try to preserve whatever integrity you have left by better articulating your position as opposed to being angry and condescending. You might earn the respect of a few people.
And like those who came before you, I will say to you the same. I hold no positions in Ancestry.com, long or short. And like those who came before you, I will say again that it is quite possible for people like me to be out here trying to help you.
You have a long journey in front of you, so I want to wish you the best in every regard.
I have been trying to warn all of you.
You might say it's premature of me to say any of this, and that this is just a knee-jerk reaction to the recent price drop, BUT NO AMOUNT OF GENEALOGICAL TOOL CREATION OR ACQUISITION will keep this stock from continuing its decline.
I AM GOING TO SAY IT AGAIN - ANCESTRY SERVES A VERY SMALL NIChE MARKET, AND THE NEED FOR IT AS PEOPLE CONTINUE TO RETRACE THEIR PAST WILL DIMINISH AS FUTURE GENERATIONS ARE BORN.
For those of you defending it on the basis of your interest in genealogy, I stand by you. For those of you defending it as a solid investment, I have warned you. How long will you continue to be fooled here?
I predicted that this stock would go down to $15.00 by 2015, and I later revised that to year end 2012.
Don't be led down the primrose path any longer. Move on to greener pastures.
Best wishes to all, genealogists and investors alike!
<<Did you buy the stock at its height 9 months ago, or is it something more personal?>>
You seem angry, argumentative and condescending. Of course you could not know when someone bot a stock or what price they paid.
People have growing interest in genealogy. The baby boomer generation is moving to senior status. This is when people typically become more interested in family history. ACOM is developing new products to make search and documentation easier. Indexing of 1940 census and DNA lineage will become available. There is much growth opportunity in this area. The sharing of family information by distant relatives is facilitated with the ACOM interconnectedness.
I think I will stick around and watch. The proof will be in new memberships added each quarter, by virture of ancestry.com itself and not further acquisitions. If the company can't grow itself, it's in trouble.
Please excuse yourself from our board Von......and if you haven't changed any minds........or facts. ACOM will continue to do well. Personally, I think there are a couple of companies out there that just may swoop in and buy us at a premium..............sooon.
Not related to when I bought (or even if I bought - you don't have to be a shareholder to comment on these posts), nor to something personal, except in that I am familiar with the world of genealogy, while I am not sure that you are, based on your comments, such as "These records are miniscule in comparison to the number of people who are undocumented."
Again, on what do you base this statement? I concede that some people were not well documented or even were undocumented, although that is quite rare because of the church records that were kept re baptisms, marriages, and deaths.
Even if one's ancestors turn out to be undocumented, that doesn't mean that someone who is doing genealogy research doesn't look for them, which is what ACOM facilitates.