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Ancestry.com Inc. Message Board

  • NewmanCofsnofski NewmanCofsnofski Aug 3, 2012 3:21 PM Flag

    $35

    It looks pretty clear that "the market" is quite certain that any offer will be $35. Look at the options: The call options are all priced to $35 under the Black-Scholes model. Also the market price is not going above $33.5. This is 95% of $35, a pretty standard percentage for highly likely deals before they get publicly announced.

    If this is accurate, I sure hope the board rejects it.

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    • If ACOM rejects the bids, the SP will drop.

      Will you still be happy about the rejected offers then?

    • asingledot@rocketmail.com asingledot Aug 3, 2012 11:37 PM Flag

      this is really really strange analysis. where do you get the 95% as a standard % for highly likely deals? have you seen OCZ? or DGIT? or, hell, a blast from the past? MGM? you think the options traders don't want to make money on their $35 calls? the only offers that make sense are high high 30s - 39+ or looking to the stable price a couple of weeks ago around 27 + 50-60% on top of that....i.e. 41-43...i think it will be around 42-45, but jeez...if you're into "black-scholes" then $35 should be the "safe" bet. i have a feeling ACOM will take anything above 40..though i'm assuming they are pushing for an ideal of $45-6.