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Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. Message Board

  • cavalieroconstruction cavalieroconstruction Nov 28, 2012 3:27 PM Flag

    what happened

    what happened. I expected this to run to DEC 5

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    • Daytraders are attracted to this stock because they believe that since we are above old highs, the sky's the limit, because there are no technical stops above this polnt. I won't even get into the logic of that supposition, but that is where we are now. Get a bunch of those guys together who think they literally need to "call it a day" and you have a "retracement" which is genuine Wall Street drivel for , it went up this morning, it's going back to at least half way tonight.

      There are about 11 days worth of shorts to cover, and that was as of 15 November. I am sure there are at least four more days of shorts sweating it out--we picked up a bunch in the last ten dollar move. Their problems mount around the morning of 4 Dec and last all day long, they have to exit the playing field along with a whole bunch of oldies but baddies, before ex div, lest they also be liable for the special dividend.

      There's going to be a lot of folks exiting the playing field the week of the dividend, so I expect to retrace at least half the pop, unless the co has some kind of other special announcement. I can see the stock all the way back, to $48 and not blink an eye. And yet I can see the shorts holding up their end and trying to get out that same period, it takes a lot of nerve to hold for the long pull. I know one guy who shorted XM radio at about $12, ran in the hole till $40, and made out like a bandit when it hit the single digits. It took him three years.

      My feeling is, this stock has run up to $58 and down to $34 before, I don't see that happening. but halfway, to about where we started before the special dividend, I don't have a problem with that happening, on the way to going to the moon again, starting late summer of 2013.

      There's a guy here who sells covered calls against his position to guard against just those kinds of exigencies. It helps to keep even keeled through the troughs. I like that.

    • they are letting me get my shares back LOL

    • MM taking out the stops ? It's bound to get even crazier from here forward. This is why they need to bring back the uptick rule, put a stop to that nonsense.

 
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