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Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. Message Board

  • puzzled48 puzzled48 Apr 3, 2013 2:09 PM Flag

    NICS background checks 2.2 million in March 2013

    Another record month for background checks.

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    • The cited Pipeline Data statistics are false, and I would not quote them to anyone. The numbers from before November 2012 are all incorrect versus the published data at the FBI web site. Not sure why the Seeking Alpha article by Mark Gomes contains the false statistics.

      • 1 Reply to puzzled48
      • By golly you're right. He mixed Adj. NICS Checks numbers (from NSSF) with Non-Adj. NICS from FBI, and one Non-Adj. NICS from NSSF (which is always just a hair lower than FBI, don't know why). The important thing is that Mar '13 Growth was +27.9% vs Mar '12 Growth +19.2%, so growth is still accelerating. That's just Non-Adj. NICS cause Adj. for March is not out yet.

        From Jan '12 thru Nov '12 he gives the Adj. NICS
        From Dec '12 thru Feb '13 he gives the Non-Adj. NICS from FBI
        Mar '13 looks like he gives Non-Adj. NICS from NSSF (I think but I don't have the number).

        What a mess !

        Month___NICS (adj)___NICS (NSSF)___NICS (FBI)___% Growth Adj NICS___% Growth NICS (NSSF)___% Growth NICS (FBI)

        Mar-13 ? ? 2,209,407 ? ? 27.9
        Feb-13 1,634,309 2,298,561 2,309,393 29.1 32.5 32.0
        Jan-13 1,790,154 2,483,230 2,495,440 94.4 81.4 81.2
        Dec-12 2,237,731 2,776,105 2,783,765 58.6 49.7 49.5
        Nov-12 1,525,177 1,997,703 2,006,919 38.5 30.8 30.8
        Oct-12 1,118,994 1,604,743 1,614,032 18.4 20.5 20.4
        Sep-12 1,007,462 ? 1,459,363 14.7 ? 16.4
        Aug-12 1,042,924 1,514,696 1,526,206 27.8 16.5 16.5
        Jul-12 853,355 1,289,585 1,300,704 25.4 12.4 12.4
        Jun-12 846,437 1,290,210 1,302,660 24.5 11.4 11.5
        May-12 840,412 1,305,392 1,316,226 20.6 7.0 6.9
        Apr-12 931,658 1,416,074 1,427,343 10.5 5.7 5.6
        Mar-12 1,189,152 1,715,125 1,727,881 20.0 19.3 19.2
        Feb-12 1,266,344 1,734,646 1,749,903 31.4 18.6 18.8
        Jan-12 920,840 1,368,816 1,377,301 17.3 4.3 4.1

    • All known factors (including especially political factors) are essentially playing out as expected or even a little better. Yet the stock relentlessly declines in a rising market (until today). The decline began immediately following the simultaneous mass sale by management of their free stock. What information did they know that they kept secret and sold their shares? I don't know either, but it looks foolish to me to pretend that the decline is due to "libtards" or some other political conspiracy. Don't play into the hands of a selfish management team that lines its pockets at the expense of the the stockholders and takes credit (plus lots of cash and stock) for "performance" that is really explained by the surge in demand due to political factors not good effort by management..

      • 1 Reply to imarugerfan
      • They have to take some profits too don't they? I wouldn't respect them if they let their Options Expire worthless, or trimmed their shares at the bottom. They have seen the political volatility that has come into their stocks and are all too familiar with it. That's why they put sell orders in for after earnings reports, to trim before the "sell the news". I would be more concerned if they were selling before earnings reports instead of on the after report pops. I'm sure they wish the political environment was such that their stocks were not a battleground, but that's not the current reality.

        It seems like you're blaming the wrong people for this.

    • "Since the release of Pipeline Data's February estimates, shares of SWHC and RGR have each retreated nearly 20%. Pipeline's March report implies that investors may have been premature in their actions. Pipeline Data now estimates that the current supply shortage will persist throughout 2013 and extend into next year, which could spark a reversal in the shares of both companies."

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