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Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. Message Board

  • imarugerfan imarugerfan Jun 10, 2013 10:41 PM Flag

    May Adjusted NICs plunge. Down 17% from prior month.

    5th consecutive monthly decline.
    Down 17% from April. Down 35% from March. Down 45% from January.

    The BS others post about Kentucky count methodology change doesn't apply to Adjusted NICS because they have always used the new methodology.

    Oh Captain, my Captain,
    where have you been?
    It is time, time once more,
    for your excuse and spin.
    Down is up, up is down.
    Get ready, here comes the clown.

    Let Puzzled, too,
    endeavor to expound
    how in his world
    NICS never go down.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • You have to try to think of it rationally, not from the biased viewpoint of someone who simply wants the value of their Puts to increase. +15.9% YoY is cause for panic? LOL. We expected the huge tidal wave surge of panic buying that produced an over 90% YoY growth figure for January to have pulled some near term (several months forward) demand forward and depleted distribution channels have artificially lowered the number so that it doesn't fairly indicate the true gun demand. I'm actually amazed that it is holding up this well.

      Nice poetry clown.

      Respectfully,

      • 1 Reply to captainwho2
      • 1) My put position has little to do with my comments. May NICS were not going to be market mover numbers. I do not think even Jun or Jul numbers will be. The ones that may move the stocks will be in the fall. By then we will see if numbers will indicate sales well below 2012 level or not (I think they may go down to about 2011 numbers, but who knows?)

        2) Actually, I think there is still some seasonality to the numbers, just not nearly as much. There is still Christmas season buying and hunting is still a factor, just a much smaller one.

    • 2012, 2011, 2010 show the same pattern seasonal declines feb. to aug. then increase aug. to feb. all year over year looks intact.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Comparing to same month a year earlier is no longer valid since hunting is no longer the primary motive for purchase.

 
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