You have to try to think of it rationally, not from the biased viewpoint of someone who simply wants the value of their Puts to increase. +15.9% YoY is cause for panic? LOL. We expected the huge tidal wave surge of panic buying that produced an over 90% YoY growth figure for January to have pulled some near term (several months forward) demand forward and depleted distribution channels have artificially lowered the number so that it doesn't fairly indicate the true gun demand. I'm actually amazed that it is holding up this well.
1) My put position has little to do with my comments. May NICS were not going to be market mover numbers. I do not think even Jun or Jul numbers will be. The ones that may move the stocks will be in the fall. By then we will see if numbers will indicate sales well below 2012 level or not (I think they may go down to about 2011 numbers, but who knows?)
2) Actually, I think there is still some seasonality to the numbers, just not nearly as much. There is still Christmas season buying and hunting is still a factor, just a much smaller one.