Data for Sept is out. Total checks were 1.4m which is a -4% decline vs. last year. This now marks the 4th month in a row with declining yr/yr gun demand. The boom is over and now it's time for the bust.
RGR stock is about to look a lot less attractive as sales, EBITDA, and net income drop.
A gun check decline of 4 % is statistically nothing. Ruger is back-ordered on several hot guns and can't fill all orders, why else are they setting up new factories. If you can't buy your take-down 22 or LCR. you are not going to need a gun check.. Nothing goes up forever...I say mid 2014 it will plateau.
Anyone surprised Ammo sales are off, because you can not find any 22's 38's 9 mm etc. ? This same convoluted logic says to get out of the business cause ammo sales are down.
Just FYI to you and anyone else reading this, you can't really compare NICS for this year to last year. The FBI recently changed the way they calculated Kentucky background checks which resulted in a substantial drop. So, if you normalize the Kentucky background checks for this year versus last year, the September 2013 NICS background checks are probably even or above.
Next, concealed carry permits qualify as alternatives to an NICS background check for most states. So, the NICS data does not include gun purchases by people with CC permits.
Long story short, the NICS data is a rough gauge of demand. I don't see much to worry about in terms of this number.
Also, keep in mind this is the start of hunting season. There will be an end-of-the-year increase in background checks for October, November, and December.
uhhhh, the Kentucky change was effective March 2012. So, the NICS numbers are comparable. Mr Rosenbergs assessment is also off the mark. NICS are holding up very well, the NSSF adjusted NICS are looking great.