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Hughes Electronics Corp. (GMH) Message Board

  • dbrewerm dbrewerm Jan 11, 2001 11:30 AM Flag

    Smokey

    Smokey,

    I would not pay ANY attention to
    the analysts to make investment decesions. It is
    obvious from their past track record they don't have a
    clue about price target ranges! Underwriting banking
    business is the only reason they have their jobs. I've
    been in the investment business for over 20 years and
    the only reason that I have been successful is that I
    pay ZERO attention to brokers and analysts. What I do
    pay attention to is Alan Greenspan, insiders, and
    GOOD executives like Eddy H and Harry J. Pearce. The
    rest is all perception and smoke screen from the
    brokers. I started investing in GMH in the early eighties,
    when they first gave us the employee shares. As I
    approach age 50, I am now totally independent. I respect
    Harry Pearce more now, than when I was at GM, and Eddy
    H is the one reason Direct TV exists today. The
    only other ingredient left is PATIENCE. This market
    has gotten clobbered because of Regulation FD. In 20
    years, I have never seen stocks fall 35% in 1 DAY
    because of a warning. When Reg. FD started, 35 to 60%
    drops became commonplace. The economy will recover and
    so will GMH and GM. GMH is a gift if you can wait 1
    to 5 years for the economy to recover. GMAC Demand
    notes are nice at 6.5%, but you will never become
    independently wealthy investing in them! Hang in there people,
    it will get better.

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    • those that live on comissions, however generated,
      by them from my actions, I have some general
      principles that I try to stick with which do include input
      from Merrill. That element is that I do not buy
      anything for a legitimate hold for growth that is not
      rated by Merrill as either a 1 or 2 (scale of 5, 1
      tops) in BOTH intermediate and long term value. One of
      the two elements MUST be a 1. Other principles are
      that I must be able to consider the stock as a growth
      company in a non-manufacturing (primarily service)
      environment and with a technology flavor. I want liquidity in
      market trading but will sacrifice this. If the company
      is in the subscription or rate per hour business,
      the subscriptions or number of hours sold must be (or
      envisioned as will be) growing and the rate charged must be
      upwardly elastic to create greater profit margins. The
      stocks must be marginable. Those are the principles...I
      do falter and compromise, regrettably, and usually
      wish I hadn't. Currently I hold GMH (Hughes)(far
      biggest by far,far), SPOT (PanAmSat), PGTV (Pegasus
      Communication), and TCM (Tycom)(undersea fibre optics).

      I
      don't count on the brokers to lead me, but I do feel
      better with their confirmations. Lately they have given
      me margin calls instead, as I try to hold on for
      (what I consider to be) a return of capital inflow and
      the return to reason.

      On the topic of
      quarterly subscriptions I have a hard time fixing what to
      expect or what to believe the street has their
      expectations set for and thus will react against. The Musey (B
      of A) thing probably reset or recalibrated street
      expectations. But the actual number is far more important,
      along with the cost of the "average" subscription and
      the churn (loss) rate. In truth I have seen little
      this year that leads me to think that the numbers will
      be that exciting to the street.

      While I don't
      care too much about the lay of the analysts' tea
      leaves, I do care about the market plaudits and poopahs
      in terms of what happens at announcement
      time.

      Lately the most remarkable game in GMH seems to be daily
      games played by daytraders (or short swingers) going
      short and covering in last market half
      hours.

      Smokey

    • Sorry, I spelled DECISION wrong in my previous message. The fingers were moving to fast!

 

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