those that live on comissions, however generated,
by them from my actions, I have some general
principles that I try to stick with which do include input
from Merrill. That element is that I do not buy
anything for a legitimate hold for growth that is not
rated by Merrill as either a 1 or 2 (scale of 5, 1
tops) in BOTH intermediate and long term value. One of
the two elements MUST be a 1. Other principles are
that I must be able to consider the stock as a growth
company in a non-manufacturing (primarily service)
environment and with a technology flavor. I want liquidity in
market trading but will sacrifice this. If the company
is in the subscription or rate per hour business,
the subscriptions or number of hours sold must be (or
envisioned as will be) growing and the rate charged must be
upwardly elastic to create greater profit margins. The
stocks must be marginable. Those are the principles...I
do falter and compromise, regrettably, and usually
wish I hadn't. Currently I hold GMH (Hughes)(far
biggest by far,far), SPOT (PanAmSat), PGTV (Pegasus
Communication), and TCM (Tycom)(undersea fibre optics).
I
don't count on the brokers to lead me, but I do feel
better with their confirmations. Lately they have given
me margin calls instead, as I try to hold on for
(what I consider to be) a return of capital inflow and
the return to reason.
On the topic of
quarterly subscriptions I have a hard time fixing what to
expect or what to believe the street has their
expectations set for and thus will react against. The Musey (B
of A) thing probably reset or recalibrated street
expectations. But the actual number is far more important,
along with the cost of the "average" subscription and
the churn (loss) rate. In truth I have seen little
this year that leads me to think that the numbers will
be that exciting to the street.
While I don't
care too much about the lay of the analysts' tea
leaves, I do care about the market plaudits and poopahs
in terms of what happens at announcement
time.
Lately the most remarkable game in GMH seems to be daily
games played by daytraders (or short swingers) going
short and covering in last market half
hours.
Smokey