I would not pay ANY attention to the analysts to make investment decesions. It is obvious from their past track record they don't have a clue about price target ranges! Underwriting banking business is the only reason they have their jobs. I've been in the investment business for over 20 years and the only reason that I have been successful is that I pay ZERO attention to brokers and analysts. What I do pay attention to is Alan Greenspan, insiders, and GOOD executives like Eddy H and Harry J. Pearce. The rest is all perception and smoke screen from the brokers. I started investing in GMH in the early eighties, when they first gave us the employee shares. As I approach age 50, I am now totally independent. I respect Harry Pearce more now, than when I was at GM, and Eddy H is the one reason Direct TV exists today. The only other ingredient left is PATIENCE. This market has gotten clobbered because of Regulation FD. In 20 years, I have never seen stocks fall 35% in 1 DAY because of a warning. When Reg. FD started, 35 to 60% drops became commonplace. The economy will recover and so will GMH and GM. GMH is a gift if you can wait 1 to 5 years for the economy to recover. GMAC Demand notes are nice at 6.5%, but you will never become independently wealthy investing in them! Hang in there people, it will get better.
those that live on comissions, however generated, by them from my actions, I have some general principles that I try to stick with which do include input from Merrill. That element is that I do not buy anything for a legitimate hold for growth that is not rated by Merrill as either a 1 or 2 (scale of 5, 1 tops) in BOTH intermediate and long term value. One of the two elements MUST be a 1. Other principles are that I must be able to consider the stock as a growth company in a non-manufacturing (primarily service) environment and with a technology flavor. I want liquidity in market trading but will sacrifice this. If the company is in the subscription or rate per hour business, the subscriptions or number of hours sold must be (or envisioned as will be) growing and the rate charged must be upwardly elastic to create greater profit margins. The stocks must be marginable. Those are the principles...I do falter and compromise, regrettably, and usually wish I hadn't. Currently I hold GMH (Hughes)(far biggest by far,far), SPOT (PanAmSat), PGTV (Pegasus Communication), and TCM (Tycom)(undersea fibre optics).
I don't count on the brokers to lead me, but I do feel better with their confirmations. Lately they have given me margin calls instead, as I try to hold on for (what I consider to be) a return of capital inflow and the return to reason.
On the topic of quarterly subscriptions I have a hard time fixing what to expect or what to believe the street has their expectations set for and thus will react against. The Musey (B of A) thing probably reset or recalibrated street expectations. But the actual number is far more important, along with the cost of the "average" subscription and the churn (loss) rate. In truth I have seen little this year that leads me to think that the numbers will be that exciting to the street.
While I don't care too much about the lay of the analysts' tea leaves, I do care about the market plaudits and poopahs in terms of what happens at announcement time.
Lately the most remarkable game in GMH seems to be daily games played by daytraders (or short swingers) going short and covering in last market half hours.