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Vitamin Shoppe, Inc. Message Board

  • investora2z investora2z May 3, 2013 6:43 AM Flag

    Earnings will be the key

    Earnings are expected on May 7. Last time around the earnings led to a huge single day fall from ~$63 to ~$51. The earnings have to be good otherwise the market may not be too kind. Last quarter, the revenue and net income had grown by 1.9% and 2.8% respectively. The margins were around 6.4% for the full year 2012. The recent announcement of an investigation by a law firm regarding improper performance of fiduciary duties by the officers & directors has also added to the negative sentiment. The stock has already fallen more than 30% from the 52 week high of ~$66 in February. Despite this, the P/E is 24 with the forward P/E being 17.46. It is trading at a price to book of 3.23 and price to sales of 1.52. Despite the fall, the stock has been good for the investors as it has moved from around $20 in 2010 to $66 recently. In 2012, the company had tested smaller markets, and made a conscious effort to develop new products. New product launches are the key to growth of these companies. Recently, ChromaDex Corporation (CDXC) launched a novel product PURENERGY which is a low caffeine drink containing its successful patent ingredient pterostilbene. ChromaDex's previous product BluScience which contained the same ingredient was recently sold in a $6 million deal. Investor Barry Honig increased his stake in ChromaDex after the deal a few days ago. VSI had acquired Super Supplements last year for inorganic growth. VSI is a zero debt company and can even go for acquisition of other companies that offer great products or it can acquire specific products. If it survives this investigation without anything too stinky coming out, there is a possibility that the stock may stabilize after the initial reaction on the earnings. It is better to wait for the earnings to be declared before taking a position.

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    • You are correct about waiting on earnings. I had 10 naked $50 puts for May and just knowing that this stock can be slammed $10 in one made me bail earlier than I wanted. I will check back once earnings are posted.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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