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Vitamin Shoppe, Inc. Message Board

  • investora2z investora2z Jul 2, 2013 6:25 AM Flag

    Trading in a narrow range

    Over the longer term, the stock had moved from ~$20 in October 2009, to the peak in February 2013. Reaction to the last two earnings has brought the stock down by 33% from $66 to $44. The fall in the last earnings was more due to the lower guidance. $43 has held so far and the stock has been moving in a narrow range for a number of sessions. The good part is that the slight correction in the market did not have much effect on the stock. However, the mood may change quickly as narrow ranges are known to give way one way or the other. For any positive move, the company needs to deliver some positive surprise either in the form of a major news or better than expected earnings. Analysts estimates, for whatever they are worth, have to be beaten. Seen in isolation, the performance was not that bad in the last quarter. Further, the company had come out with a survey that vitamin intake is increasing in the USA. The slow and steady growth in the market can help Vitamin Shoppe provided it is able to keep its options open for new products with higher margins. Chromadex (CDXC) recently launched a vitamin Nicotinamide Riboside which is expected to be useful in numerous indications. Similar breakthrough products are being launched by other smaller companies which may offer better margins. The correction has surely made the valuations more attractive, and a bit of positivity can lead to investor interest. The stock is now trading at 12.4 times forward earnings, and even the price to sales is reasonable. There was no debt on books on March 30, and that makes it a better bet than some of the highly leveraged players in the industry.

29.81+0.04(+0.13%)May 26 4:02 PMEDT