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Vitamin Shoppe, Inc. Message Board

  • investora2z investora2z Nov 29, 2013 1:10 PM Flag

    Great two months

    The fortunes for the stock have turned around in the last couple of months. It has picked up momentum after the earnings. It is now 35% above 52 week low made in the middle of September. The company beat the analyst estimates for EPS by a small margin, but the reaction was very strong. The stock was on a downtrend for many months, and the short interest was around 14% before the earnings. The squeeze could have exaggerated the impact of the earnings, but it has been able to sustain the upward movement for a couple of weeks. The performance over the last 12 months has been okay with ttm revenues of $1.05 billion and net income of $65 million. This compares well with the 2012 numbers of $950 million and $60 million respectively. In the first nine months of 2013, the company has reported revenues of $831 million and a net income of $55 million compared to $732 million and $51 million for same period in 2012. Analysts are more positive on the prospects after the earnings, and an article on Motley fool preferred the stock to GNC Holdings (GNC) mainly based on better growth performance over the last few years. The valuations are good as the forward P/E is around 21, and the price to sales is only 1.56. Growth in vitamins / supplements market is likely to remain strong, and companies like VSI are in a position to leverage that to their advantage. Growth is evident from the performance of companies like MusclePharm (MSLP). MuslePharm has grown from scratch to $100 million in a few years. For VSI to continue its upward momentum, it needs to show consistency in performance over the next few quarters. One quarter of good performance cannot be too reliable, and the stock may be vulnerable to profit booking in case of slippages.

 
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36.69-0.06(-0.16%)Aug 4 4:03 PMEDT