Monday is the last day to own the stock to be a holder of record for the $1.80 and 20 cent dividends, correct? I have to ask again. If you bought the stock on margin this past Friday 10/9, you don't have to wait the T+3 to be eligible for the dividends. This is also correct? If so, the ask volume should very light on Monday. Wouldn't you think?
I may have spoken too soon on the topic of not seeing a run-up today...my L2 quotes show VERY few sellers, and the 2 big sell blocks that were there earlier are now "gone." Should be an interesting close!
i certainly don't know for sure...i was just guessing based on what would seem like logical behavior. but with bke like you said there could be short term fluctuations.
flying, yes...37 is where it should be...and likely will be soon. but that just puts us at a pe that reflects where it should be. if retail does well we might get an over correction and that is probably what i will sell into. maybe. i tend to side with dan fitzpatrick on his philosophy that he's never going to get 100% of the move and that he's going to be wrong once (i.e., stick with a trend until it reverses and only sell/buy after that reversal).
I follow your logic, and think it's easy to overstate the short-term opportunity here, but it's also not a "big fat nothing"...the dividend will increase margin requirements for shorts, and that did/does create some upside pressure and/or the potential for a squeeze...see this old post of mine where I explain my logic:
Come on bluechip! Let's get to fundamentals. BKE is a value at $37.
What will it be worth after 3Q earnings? The street can't ignore performance forever; they're just playing out their positions that were based on BKE waning in this macro environment. Quite to the contrary, BKE has flourished in this difficult period. They were wrong, but they HAVE to play the card in their hands.
guys, the more i think about this the more i am convinced the divi is a big fat nothing at this point. the market will not pay those of us hold today a premium for a dividend unless the pps would hold its value after payout. if there is any kind of benefit to be had in terms of timing your buy on bke then there must be some risk. if no risk, then no reward. those of us who owned bke as of the announcement of the divi made the money. there wasn't anything to make after the information was out.
I'm not reading much into the low volume overall...most of the stocks I'm following are only 25-33% of 10-day avg volumes right now (just before noon EST)...Seems the holiday bug has hit volumes across the board.
With that said, I WAS hoping for a nice spike up today with shorts looking to get out before ex date...but it's not looking particularly promising right now(and there's still a large 50k sell order at something like ~$36.63ish IIRC)...looks like a bad day to be hoping for a short squeeze, but I'm still watching/waiting!
FlyingZ: I think you have it correct now...as long as you by BEFORE the ex date begins (i.e., anytime before close today), you get the dividend...your initial confusion seemed to lie in the fact that the official record date is a few bus days after ex date...owning before close today is what makes sure you're the owner on T+3 record date...that issue trips up lots of folks trading dividend stocks...but you can buy really late today and sell really early tom and you still get the divi...with that said, the stock should, theoretically, drop by $2 on the open of ex date, so there's no real "free money" here...you're just trading potential cgain income for divi income (but that's a tax question with its own intricacies!).
With all that said, here's a weird caveat: With today being Columbus Day, I noticed that my broker says today is NOT considered an official settlement day...I'm not sure exactly what that means, and whether it affects anybody's calculus on today's trades...I'm betting it only affects T+3 counting for trades from last week, but who knows?!?! I throw it out as a technical question that any of you crazy divi hunters might want to check out before blindly trading today.
This link is courtesy of 'abeachbunny,' though it will not actually link for me, so copy and paste to read. And you must read this.
The ex-dividend date is almost always two business days prior to the record date. You will be the holder of record at end of 15th if you are holder at end of 12th and sell 13th.
The following may explain it better: