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The Buckle, Inc. Message Board

  • chrishasty_1982 chrishasty_1982 Jan 13, 2010 11:08 AM Flag

    1 Year Ago Trend

    Last year after the January dividend was the beginning of a strong price surge from about 21.5 up to 39. I think we have seen a great improvement already over the last month, but do you think we will start to see a repeat of that trend starting in the next few days? As I have stated I think there is more positive news than last year in terms of growth potential especially for internet sales and to a lesser extent new stores, and we are continuing to see solid improvements in earnings. Think we will start the run past 40$ now?

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    • some, by late Dec, still think many are in some spread or pre sell, just not as short as the 8-9M suggests, maybe.

    • Tnx, I'll keep an eye on Q4. fwiw, this is a pretty sane market these days (even with pockets of pure stupid like GS$27bke), seems to care about PEs, those margins and cash at ativ are nice, even many unemployed can afford 50 bucks for a game that will entertain for months.

    • I thought ATVI would be at $15/shr now. I could have sold twice in 2009 at $12.85, but passed. The sector as a whole is beat up. ERTS (highly recommended by Cramer last week),announced Monday after close, that they would miss earnings big time, and lowered their forecast considerably. TTWO has also done poorly. What baffles me and many on the ATVI board, is that they have almost completed their 1 billion dollar share buyback. Call of Duty has reached 1 billion dollars in sales. Yes, Guitar Hero sales are down, but they own those plus DJ Hero, Kurt Cobain Rock Hero, Tony Hawk Skate Board, War Craft and on and on, and the stock goes sideways. So, a lot of cash, no debt, no dividend. Where does the money go? Great company, bad stock? High P/E granted, but everything they touch is a winner to some degree. I own 4,000 shares. If they can't get up to $15/shr after their monster 4th quarter, I'm out after earnings announcement 2/08/10. I think the bar is set very low, and they simply smoke consensus estimates. I hope this helps.

    • Your atvi looks solid, nice #s, not a bargain ttm PE but the forward estimate is real world, nice cash pile. I'm guessing you think they'll "normalize" to $15-$20 as the econ come around? Any special insight into their growth potential (guess I should check for you over at their board). My microcap bet wtt is starting to come around, want to see S continue a 2Q up trend to really firm things up. I try to keep an eye on value more than share price, but that price stuff can scare you to death sometimes, 'specially in 2009. Cheers, nm

      nice #s, no? any special insight / opinion?

    • Thanks for that nm. I usually don't pay much attention to boards. This board is an exception. On the LVS board, there are a few people that post intelligent, pertinent information and opinions. I also read what a few say on the ATVI board. BKE reminds me of ATVI. Great fundamentals, lots of cash, and a great business model. Anyway, those are some of my other stocks. I was starting to feel like BKE was the Rodney Dangerfield of the stocks. Now only my ATVI gets on respect.

    • Also, 52 week low gonna rise real soon from 19.15 to 25-26ish. Definitely higher from here.

    • I tend to agree with you. I think the overall landscape this time around is more optimistic, and I expect to see this stock in $42 range in the relatively near future. In addition to the SSS and internet sales you mentioned, I also see the new facility as a plus, especially as we're constucting it without adding debt. On top of that, investors today are generally more optimistic than they were a year ago, since the doomsday scenarios haven't really come to pass (possible exception being those people who are anticipating a "double dip"). Plus I think the threat of the double dip revolves around the commercial real estate bubble which, given our cash reserves, shouldn't present a real issue for us. Under certain circumstances, I could even see it being a benefit to our leasing obligations.

      That was kind of a rambling post. My apologies.

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