I am a long time owner of bke, and I love to shope there when I am in the mid west. I am trying to find people who are shorting bke and find out why. This is usually an easy task but I am finding this more difficult. Am I blinded because I am too close?
I think you yourself may know the answer better than anyone since you are in mid-west. I believe the shorter's thesis is that Buckle, being a non-national name, couldn't maintain the holding power of selling premium denims in a long run (like Guess? for example). Selling at premium isn't outrageous, both TRLG and Seven-for-mankind are still selling fabulously and they are in super-premium category, but the store itself does need an unanimous admiration from consumer to persist its holding power. I live in west coast, haven't visited a Buckle store and all those premium names of denims that Buckle carries are strangers to me. So, I have no clue to know what's Buckle's holding power in mid-west (For that, you should have better feeling on Buckle's competitive stance in that region). But I do admire that Buckle is able to open roughly 15 to 20 stores in California. That manifests that concept is reproducible.
Other than above, Buckle has a conservative management team that expands territory in rather slower path, that leaves a non-grower image. But I won't complain for a relative humble P/E.
Lastly, I won't complain the near $2 dividend I got a few months ago.
I doubt 60$ too soon either, but even with a more conservative (than Q4 '09) increase in earnings of 15% this year would put a 60$ share price at 19 times earnings 8 months from now.
19 times EPS is a hell of a lot better deal than URBN at 29, who by the way pays their shareholder exactly squat back, or ANF at over 51 times earnings (give me a f!uckin' break) Now JPM says were over-priced??? Put us at 51xEPS I'd laugh all the way to the bank at 139$ a share.
Personally....I`m happy we have not gone down more than we have.
Seems to be a lot of support at the mid to upper 36 dollar level.
I`m actually suprised at the strength after JP downgraded us.
Does anyone know the reason for the downgrade?
We climbed after the GS garbage call, and I really believe we will go up after this.
The volume is really slowing down as the day progresses..
sorry about the phony sounding blog. I still haven't heard a good reason why someone would short this other than the technicals. This stock seems to be eternally shorted, which make the technicals less likely. thanks
you're right about the wall street adulation for Abercrombie -- which is way overpriced. BKE may not ever be the darling on Wall Street, but it will reward investors, through regular and special dividends. I made 8 percent in dividends from BKE in 2009, plus 20 percent appreciation, and BKE still has legs. 60 seems overly lofty in short term, but it will one day get there because store count is only 410, this company will double in size in five years.
I agree that sounds like a fake.... BUT, I'd say the large short percentage is hedging and people looking at chart patterns thinking it will drop. The problem is that the fundamentals are cheap right now and it's looking like they will get better from here at good pace. We are seeing a breakthrough. I know some longs that posted here that sold are looking for entry points. By the time people are giddy to sell and buy back at a lower price, usually the price won't drop to a point where it's a no-brainer. Hey P/E at 13.7 here, we probably aren't going anywhere but up.