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The Buckle, Inc. Message Board

  • meijinmike meijinmike Aug 31, 2010 1:35 AM Flag

    Observations on market share

    I track retail revenues for some jean retailers who cater to the same demographic,roughly speaking:
    GPS, AEO, ANF, BEBE, and BKE.
    First off Congrats to Goldman Sachs who noticed some signs of trouble early.
    And Chris_V who got the earnings right.
    This disappointment happened before (one year ago) and the shares dropped from about 33 to 24. Inspite of a next quarter recovery, it took 3 quarters or so to recover the share price.
    I'm talking about market share as measured by revenues of these retailers.
    There is more randomness in these numbers than ppl give credit for, so I see a resumption of strong revenues is QUITE likely.
    The chance of hitting 18 ? Virtually Nill before the next quarter revenues come out unless we hear that the CFO is abruptly terminated or something like that.
    nmoil asks: "so, do we buy more now at this bargain price (imo) or wait for the deluge of retail angst we'll get in Q4 / pre Xmas?"

    The answer is YES, we buy NOW! I'm buying back all the share I schnitzeled at $36.50

    Good Luck !

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