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The Buckle, Inc. Message Board

  • wobatus wobatus Jul 5, 2012 8:33 AM Flag

    SSS down 2.5%

    Expectations were for flat. Tough comps, but after last months .3% figure, sss is clearly slowing. Fewer new stores opening too. Could be tough sledding for a bit.

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    • To paraphrase JP Morgan, SSS will fluctuate.

      • 1 Reply to barjonicat
      • Company will buy back shares if it falls into the low 30s, Chrishasty is right, historic metrics say this is a buy, BKE usually suffers a summer slump, it's tough to grow Same Store Sales in summer. Year after year this has been good time to buy before fall announcement of special dividend, probably $2.20 range, 5.5 percent yield on 40 dollar stock, the special dividend announcement has historically driven up the stock a few points. 48 dollar stock or 20 percent return, plus 5.5 percent divi, shall be sweet.

    • I haven't sold any shares. This has the potential to drop if earnings aren't up to snuff though. I wouldn't be surprised to see this get down around that 33$ price range that has been mentioned by analysts, but I wouldn't expect to see it for long.

    • Now do we sell?

    • I do not sell stocks based on price action EVER. I can't emphasize that enough. Unless there were some material development that changed my opinion on the value of the shares.

      I would not suggest selling at these prices. This is cheap by historic metrics, has lots of cash on the books (which has historically found it's way to shareholders pockets) and currently appears to have some positive momentum.

      BKE occasionally sees negative comps, but usually it's when the prior year was a strong one. I wouldn't blame a hard-headed BKE bull for holding out for $50 per-share, although I may be cutting back before then.

    • I don't expect to see protracted weakness here. We had a warm winter that probably pulled some spring purchases into late winter (Q1) Additionally, many of the shoppers going to The Buckle are driving 1/2 hour or more, so the high gas prices in previous months were also a culprit. The comp for June was pretty strong, so a 2% deviation isn't a cause for serious concern in my view.

      New and remodeled stores will make up for the SSS numbers. I'm not worried.

 
BKE
51.19+0.19(+0.37%)Nov 28 1:02 PMEST

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