Your math seems corect. I don't know how mgt
could make a statement of being comfortable with
consensus of .50 unless the gross % is higher due to a
difference in charge-off costs for new store locations or
inventory changes. In any case we will see tomorrow and I
believe the "bad news" is already calculated into the
OK 107.5 Sales X 8.06% avg net...Is 8.66mil in
Divide the average shares
outstanding into that and we come up with .40 shr. Or .10
short of first call.
With 21.7 mil outstanding
we need 10.85m in net to hit .50 shr.
gross margins in the mid 33% range we need 145 in sales
to get 10.85m in net.
This is what i have.
Those are the numbers. Turn 'em upside down, inside
out. Looks like we now know why BKE had it's lowest
close in the last year today.
Gross Margins for the first 26 wks of '99 was
33.73% vs 34.18 for the same period in '98.
for the first 26 wks of '99 was 8.06% vs 8.04 for the
same period in '98. Pretty
So...take the 107.5 in Sales X 8.06% to come up with 8.66m
Management has already stated that earnings would
be in line with expectations this quarter (.50). ANF
had earnings of .36 (.04 over expectations) and the
stock recovered 17% today. A good earnings release and
this will skyrocket IMO.
BKE is a real steal below 15. True, all
technical indicators are in the toilet.
Why? Because it
is playing with a yearly
low and has been very
flat. I believe earnings
will be OK and after they
are released this
week it should recover some. I
bet 17+ by
this time next week.
Good luck to
will be as good as it has beenin three years or
so..all based on govmt subsidies being poured into the ag
Most mid western farmers actually have a tax
problem because of too much income.
That and the
fact that we have a very low unemployment rate
translate to more people working, especially the 18 - 25
bracket and more money to spend on fashion clothes