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OmniVision Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • sthlm_69 sthlm_69 Feb 19, 2004 8:06 PM Flag

    Real Time Estimates By Reuters.

    Real-Time: 19-Feb-04 19:53 Consensus EPS Estimates (in US Dollars)

    Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Fiscal Year

    2005 0.33e 0.37e 0.39e 0.38e 1.47e
    2004 0.12a 0.19a 0.28a 0.30e 0.91e
    2003 0.04a 0.05a 0.09a 0.11a 0.26a

    Consensus Summary

    Recommendation Target Price 43.50
    Long-Term Growth Rate OUTPERFORM (1.67)30.00%

    Consensus REVENUE Estimates (in Millions of US Dollars)

    Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    2005 103.77e 113.23e 123.10e 122.39e 453.69e = Fiscal Year

    2004 46.49a 68.54a 94.51a 100.00e 304.86e = Fiscal Year

    2003 16.79a 20.81a 30.52a 39.94a 109.00a = Fiscal Year

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    • Management guided estimates for the current quarter ending April 31 to $.31 (post 2 for 1 split). The current quarter is seasonally weaker than other quarters. If you combine that with the continued strong demand that management discussed on their conference call and management's conservatism in the estimates they provide to analysts (they have handily beat estimates every recent quarter), it is reasonable to expect the $.31 (which is probably low) in 1Q to be the low point for the year. That would mean earnings for 2004 Calendar Year are likely to be at least $1.50 to $2.00 (high-end of range likely given that the company generally beats guidance)......even if you take the low end of range at 1.50, the stock would only have a P/E of 20.....there aren't many companies with this much growth and that low P/E. A company growing this fast deserves a P/E of at least 30 (and arguably higher), which would be more than 50% higher from here. The market partially priced this in today (up $3+ in a down market). It's too difficult to time when the rise will occur, but this one has a long way to go over the next few months and year. Expect many more upgrades and upward revisions to estimates for calendar 2004 in the coming months. Finally, there is a company with REAL EARNINGS to justify a large run-up in price.

      Disclosure = I was long (calls and stock)before the split and earnings were released at $25 and doubled my stock position yesterday in after hours at $29.50.

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