1) Booming handset estimates from Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung, Siemens and the rest right now. Strangely enough, the MM's have suppressed this great news from having any meaningful positive impact on the stock.
2) Sector leading technology--No one is close with the 5 mp CMOS chip that OVTI is releasing and distributing.
3) CMOS practical advantages over CCD chip are countless: Cheaper, up to 80% less power use, competitive clear picture technology. All these factors lead towards a dramatic shift from the CCD dominated still-camera market to CMOS technology. (And don't think for a second that the handset manufacturers won't shift on a dime to CMOS technology to take advantage of the price and power use factors.)
4) Increased consumer spending trends, as recently reported earlier this morning. I expect will continue into Fall with the holiday season.
5) Increased intergration of digital cameras into cell phones. This trend is noted most remarkably in SE Asia, then Europe. Will most assuredly become an international phenomenon over the next 12 months as higher mp cameras become standard.
6) Battered down stock price based on non-fundamental issues like the audit earlier this year that actually "beat prior reportings." No SEC follow-up, and all accounting issues have cleared.
7) Unbelievable current technicals and fundamentals. One of the lowest P/E ratios and pegs you can find in "any" tech. stock, much less a chipmaker. Growth trends have only slowed due to the consciencious efforts of management to shift towards higher margin, higher demand, higher mp chips. The benefits from this shift will show a responsible and "forward-thinking" management.
8) Cash cow. Ovti is not incurring any debt through its operations, and continues to increase its cash-on-hand position. Absolutely no questions of insolvency in the operations.
9) Buy-out potential like I haven't seen in a while. You can bet there are plenty of companies out there that would love to wrap their arms around OVTI and make an instant position in the CMOS market. Won't list the potential major suitors, but we all know who they are.
And 10) Perhaps most signifcantly, the possibilities for new market entry are huge! Medical diagnostic equipment, automobile sensor devices, surveillance and business and home security, etc, etc, etc. Look for something out of the auto industry show starting up next wednesday as well.
--Well, thanks for reading this extended post. If you still feel like selling after you've read this, more power to you. Holding 9000 long shares and wouldn't be out of this stock for even a minute right now. All of the above, JMHO, of course.
$4 per share worth of cash for a market price of $14, leavig the company valued at $620M for a current normalized net income of $100M per year. So a P/e of 6.2.
That's what every accountant knows. This alone apparently would NOT move OVTI higher at this juncture.
So what else needs to come?
- A strong confirmation that the $100M net income is for real. How? firm orders on OmniPixel chips?! more order even for the current-generation CameraChip for CameraPhone such as the Siemens Mobile 1.3MP deal (which came out really in July only announced by the sensor in Sept.).
- Strong sell-throgh of current inventory for the Nov. qtr. and more firm orders.
- Some early signs of auto market opening up.
- Smooth production rampup and relentless drop of manufacturing cost.
- Continued technological leadership. disappearing dark current, miniscule power consumption.
- Development of other synagistic areas of growth.
Good Point - TIME is on our side.
If you buy and the stock drops a little - then so what ? You don't lose until you sell.
As time goes on OVTI keeps accumulating CASH.
This is not a typical Nasdaq POS stock that is losing money. OVTI has no debt (we all know how much $$$ per share etc). So as time goes on they are building wealth. Like having a house paid off and still collecting Rent. They have a team of very talented engineers - which is even more of a reason to buy them out. OVTI will make it on their own merits or will be purchased by a Larger giant who wants in. This is not an easy business to duplicate as the learning curve is too steep.
Stop looking at your balance in you account. Just sit back and know one fine day we will be over $20 and then $25 soon there after. After that you would need a crystal ball to predict.
This company has real unique Chips that are ahead of all others in their specialized field.
There are too many new applications for our chips. The Camera Phone is just one application. You need to see what will happen when the 1st Auto deal is announced. There will be 15 million shares traded with a gap up to $21. I know most here don't believe it - but trust me I have a lot riding here and have made arrangements to acquire additional shares if we do drop anymore next week.
Many here and been holding a long time and are tired and worn out from the wait. I don't blame them - holding a stock that is way below where you bought is the most frustrating experience a person can have.
Also we all forget about the medical field - there a are numerous devices that monitor patients etc that require our chips.
Just hold on tight and add more if we drop Monday. We need to shake off the day traders who bought in for the Business week article.
I see your point. That's why I would like to load up slowly over time as the stock heads north.
I would much rather buy in increments as the sotck goes up steadily. I don't believe in buying the stocks that are falling. Who wants to catch the falling kknife?
Gotta leave now. Done trading for the day.
Good luck with OVTI
Yes this is true if your playing with a small amount of money.On the other hand if you try to time the market you can be left behind and have to chase it up.My opinion is it not the timing of the market or stock it is TIME. Good luck
Well written - good job. We all know OVTI fair value is $25. With a new Auto win we may see $35+++.
Its kind of like buying a 300k house for 150k.
Today's action is limited due to market manipulation. Watch for suprise rally in the last hour of trading.
What if next qtrs. earnings are less than stellar due to product transition issues and there's a huge run at the exit in November? Is it quite possible that OVTI could be had for less than 14? It was sold down below 9 and it's still the same company. Maybe smarter investors would hold a more diversified portfolio and consider not owning OVTI through this potential rough patch.