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OmniVision Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • xiaohongjr xiaohongjr Jul 26, 2005 7:44 AM Flag

    Pumpers are doing a great job...

    Appears to me that pumpers, so enthralled with the fundamentals seem to be missing the technicals. This is what happens, investors impressed with the fundamentals purchase long and listen to the advice so thoughtfully provided by other longs. The pumpers post messages like $21 by next CC, shorts being squeezed out, buy out will happen! Some people realize this is hype and are able to distinguish, but the folks that don't realize they are losing money will be holding based on the "one day, my prince will come" theory. This has not happened and before anyone gets seriously hurt, pumpers should be aware of their consequences. To me, a short and a long is the same thing, just different sides of the fence... don't get caught holding for too long, the expiration limit of waiting is coming soon, much sooner than the long pumpers tell you to be patient.

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    • Firstly, I have to make a correction. The Concensus for FY06 is not 1.30 but $1.20. Therefore, there is not much growth figured in the second half of the FY06. This could explain the low P/E ratio. However, since we are still 6 months from knowing what the second half may look like, the stock may flatline until then.

      But your point that OVTI is undervalued given current expectations is not correct. If you look at FY06 estimates compared to FY07 concensus you will see why. Basically earnigs are expected to grow from $1.20 to $1.25 from FY2006 to FY2007. That's barely 4% yr/yr growth! Why should the company deserve a higher multiple given the slow growth rate?!?

      The answer is it DOESN'T! The Street is saying that this is DEAD MONEY at least until the company's results force the Street to raise their estimates. Unfortunately, this will not happen until they beat concensus and raise guidance, but as you well know, OVTI will be hard-pressed to do that this quarter--HOWEVER, I will concede that they should have a good chance to beat the Street when they report in November.

      Bottomline: I agree that the company can go higher, but it will not be until November, if at all!

    • Firstly, I have to make a correction. The Concensus for FY06 is not 1.30 but $1.20. Therefore, there is not much growth figured in the second half of the FY06. This could explain the low P/E ratio. However, since we are still 6 months from knowing what the second half may look like, the stock may flatline until then.

      But your point that OVTI is undervalued given current expectations is not correct. If you look at FY06 estimates compared to FY07 concensus you will see why. Basically earnigs are expected to grow from $1.20 to $1.25 from FY2006 to FY2007. That's barely 4% yr/yr growth! Why should the company deserve a higher multiple given the slow growth rate?!?

      The answer is it DOESN'T! The Street is saying that this is DEAD MONEY at least until the company's results force the Street to raise their estimates. Unfortunately, this will not happen until they beat concensus and raise guidance, but as you well know, OVTI will be hard-pressed to do that this quarter--HOWEVER, I will concede that they should have a good chance to beat the Street when they report in November.

      Bottomline: I agree that the company can go higher, but it will not be until November, if at all!

    • Dipper, you are of course, as usual, correct.

      Please forgive me as I simply cannot resist hitting the big fat fastball that is the "ha ha ha your price is back where it was ___ years ago" taunt.

    • Ok look at the PE. Now go back to last year and check pps before announcement on restating to higher revenue. It was at that point the shorts and Hedgees got a grip on the stock and brought it down. Give me some fundamentals on why this stock should be at PE=11 when industry average is 25-30.

      b_c

    • JoBlo ... "vacuum fluc.." probably got his name playing with gerbils. He is worthless.

      He quotes the early-months following the IPO during the tech-bubble. He is an idiot. Ignore him ....

    • The price at that time is split adjusted. You look a little (actually a lot) foolish.

    • boy you are really living up to your name with this one vacuum_tube_head :

      5 years ago ovti was reporting a loss, now they have been profitable for 3 years running.

      ovti has 10 times the liquid assets on hand that it did 5 years ago, which, by the way, offset more that a full third of the market cap.

      ovti's revenues are over 25 times what they were 5 years ago.

      Do you still want to crow about the fact that ovti is trading at the same price that it did 5 years ago ? Do you think that it makes sense that it is trading at the same price it was 5 years ago ? 5 years ago there was no market for CIS, and there were serious doubts that there ever would be a market for CIS, and by the way, if there ever was one, it wouldn't be some brand new player that would create it yadda fucking yadda fucking yadda

      92 million chips shipped with $388 million in revenues booked and $300 million cash in the bank are FACTS fool.

    • Dear, Fuckin' Idiot:

      Ever heard of a stock split?

      Didn't think so.

      Your Pal,

      Ty

    • "There have been many people looking for the other shoe to drop on this company for the last year and it hasn't."

      LOL! Good one!

      FIVE YEARS AGO the stock was at least $15. For five years Hong has been shouting "growth!" "the stock will go up!" For five years the longs on this board have been mimicking him - - pumping and hyping pumping and hyping.

      Today the stock is less than it was FIVE YEARS AGO.

    • You are so funny fuckhead.

      "What do you consider the product mix say, 2 and 4 quarters out?"

      Are you referring to technology or application ?

      The only thing that an outsider can say with certainty is that there will be an ongoing bias towards higher mpix as time goes on - do you understand the fundamental reason for this ? My assertion is bourne out by statements in the 10K and the fact that the ASP increased, albeit slightly from Q3 to Q4.

      Even ovti's customers can't answer this question, which is why they have demanded faster turn-around times of late.

      "For that relevant period with whom will ovti have contracts?"

      Do you have access to someone who works in accts receivable ? We can make a pretty good educated guess that Nokia and Motorola have been ordering ovti CIS hand over fist of late : handset revenue going from 40% in '04 to 75% in 05 with 2 oems > 15% in '05 and none > 10% in '04. You gonna come cryin' to me for some shares < 17.50 if they start booking revenues from Detroit in Q3 as the rumors have it ? hee hee hee motherfucker.

      "What volume of which products will the contracts call for?"

      TSM sees a 15% increase in wafer demand q over q, scale 92 million up to 106 million - again, show one single link to a CIS manufacturer who will publish what thier PAST product mix was much less projections - one thing is certain : the newer handsets all use higher res chips - I will give you a clue on this fucknuts ... it has to do with the resolution of film ... do you know what the resolution of film is ?

      "The most important category - - what are you using as ASPs for each product multiplied times what volume for each?"

      Here again : TSM sees 5% decline at the fab level ... say ovti sees 10% - if they ship 15% more product they still grow.

      "For that time period name who you view as ovti's 5 main competitors and disclose how many new competitors you believe will announce during that period."

      5 MAIN competitors ? you tell me how many semi companies :

      1) have a line of CIS that they are trying to sell
      2) have any design wins.


      "State what you consider to be say, 3 reasons why you disagree with the engineering consensus that CDM technology is not commercially feasible for the near future."

      What "engineering consensus" are you referring to ? What do you consider the "near future" ? So you are accusing Peter of LYING when he asserted during the CC that they had a prototype which several potential customers had expressed positive feedback ?

      "State what you consider to be say, 4 reasons why you disagree with insider acknowledgements that auto and medical applications will not provide significant revenues for years to come"

      Here again : show a link to these "insider acknowledgements" - this is complete bullshit.

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26.79-0.0400(-0.15%)Dec 19 4:00 PMEST

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