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OmniVision Technologies, Inc. Message Board

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  • dukedevil682001 dukedevil682001 Feb 14, 2006 6:02 PM Flag

    worthless posts

    Although I agree with you about many of the posts being totally irrelevant, and I agree that products and patent information are useful. I totally disagree with you that estimates of pps are as you say, are "full of shit".

    I would agree that may of the comments are not based on fact, and probably are crap, however, I personally refuse to make hasty generalizations to everyone's estimates of pps.

    First, I am not on this board for academic reasons. I damn well am interested in making money. I could actually care less whether it is widgits or sensors. And though I find the scientific aspects of OVTI interesting, I really am only concerned with its fundamentals.

    Second, 50 shares may not be a lot for some of the people on this board but it may be very important to others, and whatever amount they have at stake is totally irrelvant.

    Third, I think that my SWAG numbers are as good as anyone elses and probably a hell of lot better than most of the high priced analysts that get paid a hell of a lot more. My estimates come from facts not some academic hypothesis.

    Fourth, if OVTI goes 50%/50%/50% over previous quarter for three straight quarters on revenue,its PPS will be over 100+. Is that BS, could be but I believe the market will recognize it sooner or later or I got a PE of 2.

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    • > Third, I think that my SWAG numbers are as good as anyone elses and probably a hell of lot better than most of the high priced analysts that get paid a hell of a lot more. My estimates come from facts not some academic hypothesis. <

      No your price estimates are not based on facts. PPS will only rise when buyers > sellers. So what facts do you refer to?

      You need to pay attention to the tech b/c that is what keeps ovti ahead of the competition. Some people on this board think WFC will cure cancer or allow you to spy into your neighbor's toilet and tout it as such. Very few posters have any idea what WFC really is (though ttlyon and others have provided excellent discussions).

      I guess we all have different reasons for investing here. So in closing, yes yours and others' SWAG on pps are worthless.

      HS

      • 1 Reply to dukeharsha
      • <No your price estimates are not based on facts. PPS will rise when buyers>sellers. So what facts do you refer to?>

        Let me indicate that really knowledgable persons are never condescending nor arrogant.
        We can all learn from each other.However, if you want to do well in investing in technical stocks you had better be at least fundamental knowledgable in both the technical and market dynamics involved.

        I really appreciate learning about technical aspects of WFC from tlyon, scotty,cosmo,eatrabbit, et al including dukehasha. Although like most I am sure I do not understand WFC more than partially. However, I don't need to know how to fly to take a jet. I believe I have a greater appreciation than most
        about what WFC can do and enough knowledge to know that if its IP rights are protectable it is going to be very difficult to beat. I fully appreciate the implications of the crayon box, and such matters as lowlight sensitivity,smaller footprint, and lower cost.

        At the same time, I have been around OVTI long enough to have learned that estimates have been important in keeping many of us aboard because OVTI was too good to die with these fundamentals. To me estimates despite the shorting kept me aboard. If we had bailed out, someone else would probably have bought CDM Optics.

        So where are my facts?

        The key word is "estimate". I have no desire to be prosecuted under Sarbane-Oxley so neither I or anyone else has irrefutable facts. You could rely on the experts and take the average of 10 estimates. We have to remember that analyst get their tail in a sling when they overestimate. So they tend to under estimate. No body gets upset when the company blows out earnings. I do not rely heavily on analysts' estimates.

        What I do have is an ability to assimilate other available information and make my own conclusions. Here is the factual information.

        The main supplier of lens used by OVTI, the main outside distributor of OVTI products, the exclusive manufacturer(TSMC)all have financial quarters one month ahead of OVTI. They all have reported in OVTI related areas a 40-50+% increase in revenue over the previous quarter. TSMC reported having to open two new factories to meet demand and Hong reports manufacturer TSMC having to add two factories to meet OVTI demand. When you adjust for R&D expense, OVTI tracks for the last 6 qtrs with revenue from these three. (Want to know when to really short this stock or get out? Watch these three a month ahead of OVTI's ER.)

        As to PPS rising only when buyers>sellers makes little sense. It will sell at whatever price your broker can get, higher or lower. Traditional it will be at the intersection of the supply and demand curve. We all are hoping that it will change with WFC. Both the demand and the supply curve should shift up and to the right.Total revenue should go up and maybe even price because this may be as close to a monopoly as you can get.

        Were you one of Brady's Boys(EE) at Duke?

    • Duke, keep up the good work.

 
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