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OmniVision Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • diamondinderuff diamondinderuff Jun 15, 2007 1:50 PM Flag

    SHORTS vs LONGS Discussion

    We are here to make money. To do that, we must have facts and understanding of the business of the company we invest or trade in. I would invite both longs and shorts to put down the facts that they based their purchased or shorted OVTI:

    Facts for Long ----------------:--- Facts for Short
    1. Blowout Q : Lower Margins
    2. Raised Guidance next Q & beyond: Higher Margins ahead
    3. WFC/TrueFocus Orders Finally :
    4. Announced Several New Products :
    5. New Products/orders in pipeline:
    6. Biggest Customer Base (diversified)
    7. Solid Cash/Balance Sheet :
    8. Stock bottomed & is on uptrend :
    9. 40% shorts&Lots of Naked Shorts:
    10.SEC new rules positive :

    Add your facts to the list & so you can invest intelligently and to reap your profits. My studies showed that most people invest and esp trade based on emotions and not facts. If you don't list then you must invest or trade based on emotions then. Most shorts are pessimists and longs are optimists...these are facts!

    Thanks in advance,

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    • More fun facts.

      LG goes with quality glass Schneider-Kreuznach lens in new high end Prada. (Say Kodak)
      just like ovti lost NOK high end camera phones to suppliers with a Zeiss lens (Say Toshiba)

      STM is added to the only instant auto focus on the market the Vapriotpic liquid lens.

      Lyon (France) � June 5th June, 2007 - Varioptic, the liquid lens company, announced today the signature of a licensing agreement with STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM), a world leader in CMOS imaging technology, for the use of the liquid lenses in ST�s products. Under the terms of the agreement, STMicroelectronics will use Varioptic�s liquid lens technology to add auto-focus capability to a family of camera modules targeting the booming camera phone market. Additionally, ST will also be able to manufacture liquid lenses in its own facilities. Varioptic�s liquid lens products include the current Arctic series (Arctic 320 and 416) as well as new thinner versions to be launched in the coming months. �We have had a long cooperation with ST and are delighted that they have decided to license our liquid lenses technology for use in their future auto focus camera modules,� said Etienne Paillard, CEO of Varioptic. �Having a leader such as ST endorse our liquid lens technology is a major step forward for Varioptic.� Eric Aussedat, General Manager of ST�s Imaging Division, commented: �Our customers are now looking for high-resolution miniature camera modules that enable a true digital camera experience, but do not suffer from the drawbacks of complex moving optics, such as reliability hazards, high power consumption, noise and cost. By combining Varioptic�s latest liquid lenses with our industry-leading 1.75-micron sensor technology, we believe we can break current performance-cost frontiers and dramatically increase the adoption of autofocus in phones.�

      That makes Avago Micron Kodak Samsung as well as OVTI.
      Varioptic Liquid Lens at LASER WORLD 07, Munich 18-21 June 2007

      LINOS, Varioptic European Distributor, will present a demo bench with Liquid Lens at LASER 2007 - World of Photonics from 18th to 21th June in Munich - Hall B1 stand 107

      DXO with Magna Chip and STM

      Tessera Eye Squad moving along with Micron leaving OVTI behind.

      WFC umm... sorry no takers on the little plastic blur the image then try to use algorithems to make a shape image concept.

      The winds of change.

    • That is correct Eric, but note the size of the sensors. That was my point. If smaller is better, then the demand for the smaller footprint will be the highest. Just because the raw chips are shipping doesn't mean that OEM's aren't looking for packages. Just because the 1/3" is available in quantity doesn't mean that the call wont be for 1/4". That is why I broke it down to denote Raw, SOC etc. Yes, they have plenty of chips for sale but they will most likely be sold in existing contracts as needed for production. They aren't going to get a whole lot of design wins until they get the ones I mentioned ramped up in both raw and SOC. Additionally, my point covered the continually declining guidance from the previous post and offered an explanation of why that might be using information from the MU CC et al.

    • Eric,

      Try SOC (system on a chip) from Micron. They have a different name for CSP. Also, while you are at it look at the production cycles of the VGA 1/10", the 1.3 1/4.5", the 2.0 raw die and SOC and finally the the 3.1 1/4". What you will find is that all but the 2.0Mp chip is still in the sampling stage and not in production. Micron rolled the dice on 2.0 as the mainstream product and softened the emphasis on VGA at the smaller die size. They have plenty of VGA chips, they are just the larger size and the smaller ones are available from another source with CSP as a complete module. Omnivision saw an opportunity to continue to support and innovate the smaller footprint VGA chips and invested in their own CSP JV with the help of TSMC to increase margins and ASP's. They also gained design wins with their 2.0 chip which carries a higher margin. The reason that MU isn't making any money in image sensors is that they aren't selling anything in the smaller footprint except the 2.0Mp 1/4" chips. In addition they cannot make the argument that they can simply drop in their own sensor where Omnivision is placed because Omnivision is supplying VGA in CSP and 1/10" and MU has nothing to drop into place shipping. That leaves 2.0 and I think MU will sell a boat load of them this year but it won't do anything to alleviate the large quantities of the larger sensors that they have stockpiled. It may take a year to get rid of them. You saw the estimates for the year. IMO this is why they seem to be going backwards.

    • It seems that MU estimates are going down the same way OVTI experienced it last quarter with a few differences.
      First, MU is like a big heavy truck that when it slows down then it takes much longer to get back to its normal speed. It took OVTI only one quarter to get back to the game but analysts blew it out of proportion and encouraged shorts to attack. Second, I do not think MU has prepared itself to compete in new products while OVTI was researching and getting new technology.
      Bottom line, MU will go lower and it may see prices under $10 while the only way OVTI will go is up.

      MU estimates
      EPS ****** May/07 Aug/07 2007 2008
      Current Est -0.21 -0.08 -0.21 0.26
      07 Days Ago -0.20 -0.07 -0.18 0.30
      30 Days Ago -0.14 -0.02 -0.01 0.42
      60 Days Ago -0.13 -0.01 +0.05 0.43
      90 Days Ago +0.06 +0.14 +0.47 0.74

    • YOu can get several PDF reports on MU from different analysts. I don't know who did the analysis in your buddy's 81P report.

      I agree that we should research the competition as well and that goes for MU. Some people here and on IV know a lot about MU and generally do not like it. So advocating MU would not bode well for your image here. I would learn enough about MU before say anything aout it.

    • From Google: "In-Circuit Serial Programming and ICSP are trademarks of Microchip Technology Inc." So I don't really know what ICSP stands for image sensor packaging at MU.

      Eric: I cannot keep up with you. You seems to have a lot of time at hand to read and post on MB. By the way, I check read IV board as well.

    • <<why did raymond james up mu to strong buy on friday?>>

      For the same reason that most analysts were dead wrong about OVTI, they are wrong again about MU. Simply, believe in numbers since they don't lie.

    • Eric,
      What is wrong with MU. Yahoo is updated new estimates and the new estimates are lower than a few days ago. Basically, MU estimates are going down like that famous wal-mart ad.
      Is this a hard evidence that MU is losing a big market shares to OVTI?

      MU estimates

      EPS ******* May/07 Aug/07 2007 2008
      Current Est -0.21 -0.08 -0.21 0.26
      07 Days Ago -0.20 -0.07 -0.18 0.30
      30 Days Ago -0.14 -0.02 -0.01 0.42
      60 Days Ago -0.13 -0.01 +0.05 0.43
      90 Days Ago +0.06 +0.14 +0.47 0.74

    • The main reason I do not like you here is that you put some wrong statements and polish it with "friend of mine said".
      Here is an example
      "just talked to a friend about MU and csp. he said he thinks they use mcp(multi-chip packaging) from tsra."

      mcp is used by TXN to kill some of its smaller competitors like RFMD.
      It does not apply in sensor business. After all, OVTI sensor chips usually come with more functionalities than MU chips.

      All I say, do not try to sound like some of those stupid analysts who do not know their a$$ from a hole in the wall.

    • Those are not my words I just posted some international messages from a month ago before recent earnings release. I see that they are right on money on some of their prediction regarding new all time production and revenue.

      Stop advertising for MU here.

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