I would like to formally thank all the greedy bastard short sellers, cowardly weak hand holders and anyone else dumb enough or incredibly unlucky in their timing for selling me their shares at $5.
I now have a tidy profit at $12 for OVTI.
little lesson for you youngster. i use to help buy and sell companies back in the 80's. before you'd take the company private expecting to sell it later, you'd first want to find a buyer. that's right, before you buy it you have it sold for more.
since ovti is guiding losses for proforma and gaap, no one would buy them at a decent premium to a reasonable price required to take ovti private.
not going to happen in this environment when most deals are falling thru and banks and private equity are standing around with their pants down to their ankles, bent over..........
well you get the idea............
buying boatloads in the 6's and 5000 more shares at $5.50.
a good day's pay for me. You????
She is a late comer. Most analysts already lowered estimates for October quarter to six cents. And she just lowered it to 15 cents. Her revenue estimate of $168 million is still above the average estimates of $167 million. On comparison, OVTI's irrational drop to as low as $5.02 were due to the analysts lower the estimates to six cents. So I think if she is right, the 15 cents estimate will become a surprise in the ER.
OVTI drop to $5.02 occurred on Black Thursday on November 20th when the NYSE, NASDAQ, et al...........sold off to irrational valuations. We all saw how long it lasted.
The OVTI valuation at this time is absurd.........
Who knows who the analyst works for?
The forecast of Laptop's sale world wide in 2009 is around 5% decreasing or increasing. the forecast of cell phone's sale world wide in 2009 is about 5% decreasing or increasing. why does OVTI have to drop 25% sale in 2009? plus its stock price has been dropped 100% over the past months.
I believe OVTI will be above $8 after earning. $8 is still low to OVTI. it is the king of image sensor vendors.
OVTI is gold now.
I think this downgrade does not reflect poor performance in the CMOS sensor market by OVTI relative to competitors.
However, it does reflect the huge cuts in build rates in the handset in notebook markets going forward due to inventories and lower demand. As such it presents the macro-economic picture, not an OVTI-specific execution issue.
Semiconductor component markets are brutal right now (just looks like at segments like memory or LCD which are selling well below cost) and CMOS sensors is not immune.
Good macro point..........but cell phones coming back.
Selling below cost........please site some examples where companies are going into production on product specific orders for customers wherein a company like OVTI sells to an OEM the ordered product for less than cost.
The industry doesn't work that way. You
take an order that has profit worked in.
This is why OVTI continues to produce quarterly profits.
OVTI will prosper should a price war evolve. They are one of the lowest cost producers in the industry........
good point. thanks.
but since the macro affects all CIS companies (micros), it should be a wash. or, caris should have also similarly downgraded all of the CIS companies it follows.
if caris' only cis company it follows is ovti, you could be right. too bad we don't have the caris' downgrade reasoning as of yet so we would not have to speculate like this.
i was not really commenting on the reasoning of the caris call (since i don't know what it is yet) but rather why i agree with its bottom line (i.e., hold) based on my own reasoning.
Clearly the Caris analyst is:
1) an idiot who doesn't know how to count
2) is up to no good, and doesn't have honest intentions.
AS WE ALL KNOW SELLING A STOCK BELOW ITS CASH LIQUIDATION VALUE THAT IS "EARNING" A PROFIT DOES NOT GO DOWN IN PRICE!!!
caris did not downgrade to a sell, just to average--basically a hold.
some people feel that because of intensifying competition out of asia, ovti's growth prospects in terms of market share and margins is either limited or negative.
compensation costs will go up some since ovti wont be able to use options as much if at all and will have to pay more cash. plus, they're making less interest income on their large cash horde. and don't forget, analysts are starting to think cash burn.
plus, i would not doubt because of the large drop in pps, there may even be a need to take noncash writedowns for ovti investments in china wlcsp, xintec, and visera under FAS 141 and 143.
ovti may even be or expect to be adversely affected by the increase in the value of the US dollar.
people talking about cash per share, no real debt etc... is getting old. they should be talking more about where are the profits from wfc, bsi, and wlo as well as what's going on with the increasing competion from asia.