(01/08/2009 10:42 AM EST)
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- It's going from bad to worse among Taiwan's leading foundries: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.'s business is worse than expected, while United Microelectronics Corp. sees a major sales decline.
TSMC's ''customers are cutting orders, driving down utilization rates to historical lows, according to a report from FBR Capital Markets. ''We believe there is increased probability that utilization rates at TSMC could even decline to below 40 percent in 1Q '09, potentially setting a new historical low compared to the last historical low of 41 percent that occurred in 2Q '01.''
This is worse than previously expected. In a report released in December, FBR said it expected TSMC's capacity utilization, which had been significantly above 90 percent in the third quarter, to fall to the low 60 percent or high 50 percent range in Q4 and to 45 percent or lower this quarter. In a separate report, FBR said it expected UMC's utilization rate to about 40 percent in the first quarter of 2009.
At present, TSMC's wafer starts are falling--and fast. ''Although TSMC lowered 4Q '08 revenue guidance in early December, prompting us to lower our (calendar 2009) estimates, checks this week in Taiwan suggest continued cutbacks in wafer starts, so far, in early January,'' according to FBR.
''Specifically, we now expect wafer shipments to have declined by as much as 35-38 percent quarter-over-quarter in 4Q '08 (verses previous expectations of down 30-35 percent), and we now expect 1Q '09 wafer shipments to be down by as much as 30 percent quarter-over-quarter (verses previous expectations of 25 percent),'' according to the report.
''This is expected to seriously test TSMC's ability to remain above break-even point in 1H '09,'' according to the report. ''Our checks also indicate that, although the wafer start cuts are being done by customers across all different end markets, the wireline customer orders (specifically Altera) have remained relatively stable while customers like CSR, Himax, Broadcom, Freescale, Marvel, Omnivision, Sunplus, TI, and Zoran have had the most cuts.''
FBR is cutting its 2008/2009 EPS estimates for TSMC again, lowering them from the previous $0.62/$0.20 (or NT$3.88/1.32) to $0.62/$0.07 (or NT$3.85/0.47).
Business is also bad at Taiwan rival UMC. UMC's December sales were NT$4.609 billion ($139 million), down 45.54 percent from a year earlier and 23.49 percent lower than November's level.
For 2008, UMC's sales were NT$92.5 billion ($2.789 billion), down 13.34 percent from a year earlier.
y-day was a big day for down volume. tuesday had a 800000 sh trade when the pps was flat. once people realized the size of the trade, they jumped in causing the price to spike. not smart.
imo, some idiot short misinterpreted the tsmc info that came out the night before in china as good for ovti and covered while a smart guy who thought the pps was going to $5 for jan opex sold the shares to the covering short.
there are shorts and there are smarter shorts.
This is your half truths. As I pointed in the thread if you take a home loan, it is false to say you are in debt as the same amount of the loan. You obviously do not own a property or your brain is truely f___ed.
so what, it's true. they have actually more like 38 million of debt associated with the corporate hq. that equates to about 70 cents a share. danny erroneously said that ovti had no debt and i corrected him. read the whole thread.
you don't know how to think and you are always putting words in my mouth.
go f' yourself mongoloid.
You said 200 million chinese living off less than a couple bucks a day. The link you provided is stat from 3-4 years ago not today. So what you said is still a lie. Keep in mind the lie started from kaiwin then you supported his lie.
This is what you said. Now you remember?
[danny, they have about $35 million of debt (about 70 cents a share) on corporate hq i believe. funny you mentioned sndk. it still has a billion in cash coming from toshiba associated with the sale of the 1/3rd interest in the JV.
danny, have you ever looked at the life expectancy of ssd's v. harddrives. interesting stuff?
i remember what i said and it was not what you said i said. i said to provide the link so that any idiot that read your remark and then read my "linked" post would know that you were putting words in my mouth.
pretty funny how i said the thing about 200 million chinese living off less than a couple bucks a day, and you said 30 years ago, and then i provided a link to the stat from 3-4 years ago. You were wrong and you tried to worm your way out of it.
i could acuse you of spreading half truths but i don't want to steal your material especially since you have so little (because you lack creativity like most of your kind).
china is a shit hole now and will still be a shit hole in 10 years. did i tell you i've been there. i will never go back because of how inhumane they are toward their poor, their elderly, their women, their animals. there is a reason the country has been communistic for so long.