u r welcome ski. i had 90% of the board on ignore for most of the time. me, the tina's, a few longs (even apc) were worth listening to. i converse with martin not because i am impressed with his financial acument but because i find him amusing. ovtfan is totally useless. semi is good but you have to take what he says w/ a grain of sand. he's a total optimist and he's not up on the competition as much as i feel he should be. gorgo, nervous elk, goutah are all good.
ps: hopefully you are not long now because they may continue. tech will take ovt down with it even though ovt is a special play on smart phones. throw the baby out with the bathwater type thinking espeially with year end profit taking rearing it's ugly/beautiful (depending if long or short) head.
good luck bra. have a nice weekend if we don't talk again b4 end of day.
Gorgo, thanks again for a post of considerable depth that is rarely seen outside of Eric's comments on this board. I'm still just playing the technicals due to OVTI's aquisition of the Colo. firm that was going to bring wave front coding several years back. The proof will be in the next CC. Margins will be key and probably plenty of time to get on the band wagon due to several quarters of improvement will be necessary before a large PE will be warranted. Good luck with your OVTI investing from a fair weather long.
I will agree with EK on all but a couple of things. It is true that other companies have BSI (Backside Illumination) technology but the true question of deliverability is yield and scalability. OVT is able to deliver in quantity a technology that everyone else has been toying with for years. Many have been down this road and many have failed.
TSMC and OVT have perfected a process in which a thinner, more sensitive sensor is used to process light. Because the back side of the sensor is used, the sensor has a larger usable area. This allows for the reduction of dark energy and reduces the amount of error correction needed to produce a quality image. The BSI process is harder to produce but the quality gain makes it well worthwhile. Now that OVT is about to introduce BSI-2 on the 5 and 8mp platforms, the competition will be slow to catch up.
It is important to differentiate platforms when it comes to discerning who is shipping components and in what quantities. Sony and Samsung will catch up eventually but not any time soon. Even if they do start their own production, they will have to create their own unique methodologies for perfecting the BSI process in order compete with OVT patents.
Like Eric, says, there is room for competition... When they start competing for each other’s space is when the pricing will equalize and eventually fall. For now, ASP's and margins and market share will rise. Being short is not a very intelligent prospect right now unless you are a swing trader. OVT is entering its 2 most historically profitable quarters and until they are over, the graph is headed up, not down and if OVT ends up with Apple's CDMA (aka Verizon) business then there are even better prospects beyond the next 2 quarters.
If our intellectually challenged short friend has any sense, he or she will stop screaming in internet urban slang and emoticons and realize that Apple at $100 seemed way over priced at one time too.
His response was exactly what I expected out of an uninformed, uneducated rube that thinks that crying fire in a theatre is the way to get a good seat when showing up early is all it takes. He reminds me of a dog that barks at butterflies.