OVTI - Friday closing price - 28.89
OVTI has been on a tear for the last 2 years appreciating in value over 700% and now nearing its all-time highs. This past week the stock made new 54-month highs and did it in a positive reversal fashion having made lower lows, higher highs and a close above last week's high. With no prior resistance above for at least another $2.50, the probabilities are high the stock will continue upward.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 30.20, minor to decent at 30.84 and strong at 33.16. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent between 30.84 and 31.02 and strong at 33.94. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 27.80 and again at 26.66. Below that level there is no support until minor to decent support is found at 24.56. On a daily closing basis, support is decent at 25.92 and then decent again at 23.92.
OVTI broke above a decent resistance level at $25 6 weeks ago and got up to a high of 28.37 where the stock temporarily stopped. For the past 11 trading days, the stock corrected, tested the $25 level with a drop down to 25.80, and on Friday resumed its upward movement making a new high. There is no resistance above until the $31 level is reached and that resistance is "old" and minor from Aug06.
OVTI retested the breakout at $25 last week with a drop down to 25.80 on Monday, followed with 4 up days to a high of 29.10 seen on Friday. Friday's low was 27.79 and from the past, back in 2003, the 27.92 level became a decent support level from which the stock rallied up to 33.83. In addition, the previous high seen 3 weeks ago was 28.37, which means the 27.79 to 28.37 level now has to be considered support and unlikely to get broken unless the stock fails to follow through.
To the upside, it is likely the stock will find some initial resistance at the $31 level, but ultimately the previous highs at 33.83 and 34.46 should be the target of this rally.
Purchases of OVTI between 28.31 and 28.72 and having a stop loss at 27.69 and an objective of 33.83, will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the strongest).
My name is Tony and I am a chartist. I have been trading for over 30 years. In the 80's I was a broker/trader/analyst for Merrill Lynch, Dean Witter, and Pru-Bache.
I offer an inexpensive chart evaluation service on stocks of your choice through membership to my newsletter and message board.
“When or where do I get in? When or where do I get out? What is the trend for the next week? For the next 3 months? Where are the strong buyers and where are the strong sellers (based on past action)? What is the risk/reward ratio on my trade (based on chart objectives)? What looks good right now (chart-wise)?”
These are some of the questions that I try to answer through chart evaluation.
I offer a monthly service that includes a weekly newsletter with chart evaluations on 4 stocks that I believe have attractive chart patterns and good risk/reward ratios as well as 1 chart evaluation per week on a stock of your choice. Evaluations include entry and stop loss points as well as likely objectives. The service also includes membership to a message board where daily updates on all stocks and stock indexes are given. Cost of the service is only $27.95 per month. A 2-week Free Trial is offered. If you want a lesser package, I do offer one for $4.95 that only talks about the Stock Indexes.
If you are interested in learning more about the service, click on my nick and get the website address from the profile area.
Hey, I understand what you are thinking but then again you have no information in which to make an intelligent decision.
I have a "public" service in which I give all my mentions before the fact in a newsletter that gets published every Sunday night. This is all done in the open and in which all profits and losses are stated clearly.
Below is last months results which should give you a better idea of what I do and how the results are given.
Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010, as of 9/30
Profit of $17,542 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)
Closed out profitable trades for October per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
AMZN (short) $752
AMZN (long) $106
AMZN (short) $89
FSLR (short) $2291
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close.
MMM (short) $81
FSLR (short) $431
NTES (short) $77
Total Profit for October, per 100 shares and after commissions $3827
Closed out losing trades for October per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
FSLR (short) $55
FSLR (short) $35
GS (short) $663
AMZN (short) $87
GS (short) $64
AMZN (short) $77
V (short) $37
BA (short) $81
WYNN (short) $262
NFLX (short) $392
AXP (short) $164
NFLX (short) $298
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
JNPR (short) $476
AMZN (short) $9
SOHU (short) $339
Total Loss for October, per 100 shares, including commissions $2647
Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 10/31
CAT (short) $241
V (short) $400
GE (short) $29
CAKE (short) $63
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 10/31
BA (short) $354
JNPR (short) $109
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
WFC (short) $94
Status of trades for month of October per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Profit of $1486
Status of account/portfolio for 2010, as of 10/31
Profit of $19018 using 100 shares traded per mention
You need to understand that I am not an analyst, I am a chart reader. As such, what I do is look at the support/resistance levels, evaluate the probabilities as well as the risk/reward ratios and play a diversification and money management game.
Let me explain what this all means in simple words.
If I am not already in a stock, I am not playing the trend and even if I am in the stock, if the chart objectives that I see have been reached, I will take profits. My average time of being in a trade is usually 2-3 weeks. I am a short-term trader.
I often go against the trend if for no other reason than if a stock is in a trend the support levels are far away and therefore I do not get the minimum 4-1 risk/reward ratio that I look for.
I often get stopped out of trades because of this, but then again all my losses are by nature small, but my profits are not. With 4-1 risk/reward ratios, based on charts (not on money), I can literally be wrong as much as 80% of the time and make money.
One additional thing I use is diversification, which means I usually do not have more than 10 to 15% of my portfolio in any stock and I usually have 8-10 stocks at all times. This allows me to be wrong on many stocks but with the stocks that I am right I will make more money than the stocks where I am wrong.
As far as answering your question about picking the bottom in 2009, I was very successful at it if only because the risk/reward ratios were not good in sales at the time, but they were good in purchases.
It has taken me 32 years of trading to come up with this trading strategy and it works. Nonetheless, it basically works because of my knowledge of charts and support/resistance levels.
Keep in mind that the big traders, the ones that are trading huge amounts of money, always have to know where to get in, where to get out, and how much to risk and how much they are looking to make. As such, they use support/resistance levels themselves. Because they do that, it becomes almost self-fulfilling because other traders are looking at the same thing and doing the same thing.
I have no ego and don't care if my picks are wrong or right. They only thing I care about is making more money than I lose.
One thing you should understand about what I do.
I am not an analyst. I do not analyze companies or come out with projections on what a stock is going to do.
What I do is read charts and try to come up with probability numbers.
What I then do, is play a money management game in which I try to make more money than I lose.
It is as simple as that. Sticking to an evaluation is not my bag since things can change from day to day and the probability numbers can change as well.
My track record is being right 47.5% of the time. You will probably say that is about the same as a flip of a coin, but that is not a correct view because my knowledge of support and resistance levels allows me to "pinpoint" entry and exit points as well as good stop loss points. This means that my losses are always small but I do not limit my profits. As such, being right 47.5% of the time means consistent success.
With this trading approach I can literally be wrong as much as 80% of the time and still break even or make a small profit.
Since I do not analyze companies, keying on whether I am right on one stock or not is insane. Bottom line is that I am usually in about 8 to 10 stocks at all times and am using the same 4-1 risk/reward ratios, about the same probability numbers, and the same pinpointed entry points. This means that if I am right 50% of the time, I will make 400% profit versus 100% loss.
My benefit to all investors is my knowledge of charts and support/resistance levels. In this respect I can help anyone at any time and with any stock...........even stocks of your choosing (not mine).
This kind of a service is difficult to find, if not impossible, and especially for what I charge.
As far as earnings reports, I generally have no idea how they will come out and really don't care much. If I am in 10 stocks some of the earnings reports will be in my favor and some against me. Bottom line is that since I am diversified no one report can hurt me much. On the other side of the coin, if I am on the right side of the report it certainly can help me inasmuch as I cut my losses but let my profits run.
What I do is not rocket science and does not require that I be right that often, just that I trade my portfolio with common sense, good money management, and pick my entry points and exit points carefully.
It's as simple as that.
By the way, most of my trades average 2-3 weeks and I do an average of about 300 trades a year. I publish monthly reports of all trades mentioned with profit and losses included.
I am often wrong, often right, but the bottom line is that I have yet to have a losing year since 2003 since I started this type of trading approach.
That is what I offer. Not "one" good chart analysis on one stock. I truly don't care which stock makes me money. Bottom line is what I always want is to make more money than I lose. I have been successful doing that "consistently".
I've been following Omnivision since 2004. I've seen a lot craziness, and I've made a lot of money with this stock.
You seem to have a pretty solid and well thought-out grasp of this stock. One question though, if you bought at those levels, why wouldn't you use a Trailing Stop-Loss? And if you did, what would you set it at?
Thanks for your time and thoughts.
I am a pure chartist and use mainly support/resistance levels.
In addition, in looking at the charts I can normally see what the big traders are going for (objectives) and therefore I don't use trailing stop losses.
When my objective is reached I normally take my profits unless the stock breaks through the resistances. Most of the time resistance levels will hold, at least the first time there, and therefore taking profits is the right move. On occasions, I will take profits and re-buy on a good dip.
I will raise my stop loss placements on occasions as the stock backs and fills and new support levels are reached but I do not like to use trailing stop losses because the mean nothing to the big traders and with just backing an filling, which is normal, I would get stopped out of what could be a good trade.
Though there have been occasions where a trailing stop loss might have locked in a profit that I subsequently gave up, it doesn't happen near as much as you may think.
Trading between support and resistance levels can often clearly determined. As such, I make the chart evaluation and tend to stick with it unless the action shows me something different. Most every day's action can give clues as to what the traders are thinking and I try to follow that.
Been trading for 32 years and have been trading this way since 2003. I have not had a losing year yet. Nonetheless, keep in mind that I am normally diversified into 8-10 stocks at all time and therefore no one stock can hurt my portfolio much even if one does something unexpectedly bad against me.
OVTI is not acting as it should be acting and it is starting to cause me some concern.
This is a stock that had a positive earnings report this week, is on a major uptrend, and shows only minor to decent resistance up at 31.30 from 2006. In addition, the stock is having a positive reversal week having gone below last week's low, and now traiding above last week's high.
This all points to a stock that should be leading the way up yesterday and today and yet the stock is actually trading in the red. Something just doesn't seem right and under the present conditions in the market, anything that is not as it should be, should be questioned.
I am considering taking profits today because if the stock does not rally above yesterday's high at 31.37 today, the gap area down at 29.05 will start to beckon.
I will give the stock another couple of hours to see what it can do, but I am starting to get itchy fingers. This stock should be "roaring" right now.
Here is a chart update.
With the positive earnings report yesterday, the stock is due to open higher today. Stock is bid at 30.00 and asked at 30.10 at 7:30am.
Last week's high was 30.32 and if the stock is able to get above that level today, or any day this week, it will show up as a reversal week as the stock already went below last week's low at 28.50 when it dropped yesterday to 28.07.
A rally above 30.32 will set up a bullish reversal that should take the stock at least up to the 30.98 to 31.30 level. If 31.30 is broken, the stock will likely test the all-time highs between 33.83 and 33.49. A rally above 31.30 should take the stock at least up to 33.46 (high made the first week of Feb06).
The stock is gapping up today above yesterday's high at 29.05. As such, the bulls are committed to taking out the 30.32 high, or the gap will become a magnet to be closed. If the 30.32 level is broken, you will likely see an additional round of new buying.
If the stock fails to take out the 30.32 high, drops down to 28.92 to 29.05 will likely be seen, but that level should be strong support today.
My stop loss at 28.40 got hit today. Nonetheless, I have not yet liquidated the positions as all my stops are mental.
Below is the message that I gave my message board regarding the trade:
I have decided to hold on to the positions I have left and risk the earnings report that comes out this afternoon after the close.
It is a risk, especially since the stock has broken below the minor support at 28.50 and well as giving a mini sell signal on the daily closing chart by closing below 28.98. Nonetheless, the previous high daily close, before this recent rally, was 28.03 and looking at the weekly chart back in 2006 when the stock was last trading up at these levels, the first time the stock got above $30 it fell back down to 27.92 and the following week to 28.51. As such, there is some weekly support here, if you look back at 2006.
The worst case scenario, in looking at the chart (not fundamentals), is a drop down to 26.12, and I am willing to accept that amount of risk. The reason why I am willing to accept that risk is that the possible upside objective is 34.13 and that means that even if the stock drops down to 26.12, with the stock presently trading at 28.25, I am risking $2 to pick up $6 and that is still a 3-1 risk/reward ratio, and that is considering the worst case scenario.
As such, I will hold on to the positions for the earnings report.
Here is my weekend comment to my subscribers regarding OVTI
OVTI once again generated a green weekly close keeping the uptrend intact. Nonetheless, the stock is starting to reach levels where some selling could be seen, with $30 being psychological resistance, and 30.98 to 31.19 being previous levels where selling was seen back 2006. The area between $30 and $31 is not considered to be strong resistance, but if the indexes start having problems it is likely the traders will use that area to start liquidating their profitable trades. The stock did close almost on the highs of the week, suggesting that further upside will be seen this week with 30.98 to 31.19 as the probable objectives. A break above those levels, though, will likely generate further buying with 34.13 to 34.39 as a likely objective. There is very little support on the chart, but the stock did have a mini correction on Tuesday, down to 28.50, and therefore that level now has to be considered pivotal short-term support. A break of that level would likely generate a drop down to 26.15. As such, I suggest the stop loss level be raised to 28.40.