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OmniVision Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • born2_dar born2_dar Feb 26, 2011 12:02 PM Flag

    Eric Karr personal message

    Sometimes the best thing to do is to admit you were wrong. The more you post your drivel the more you reveal 1) you are desperate (notice I did not say you were a desperate short) but you are desperate to make salient points which have very little substance. In doing so you reveal a second point which is that you really don't understand business models. We are into the Smart Phone App Revolution. Forget PCs which will soon be a thing of the past. IPhones, Droids, Xoom, IPads, tablets are here and the consumer simply cannot get enough. OVTI is a major supplier of these products. You should know this but in your posting you acknowledge nothing. 3) A company's past stock performance is no indicator of the present or of the future. Stock prices are manipulated by the fundies, hedgies, etc. This might be important for a trader but for someone looking to invest for substantial long term gains this companies technicals are just solid. An acknowledgment by you would go a long way but because you refuse this (probably because it would mean swallowing your pride), you continue to look foolish, an amateur with no credibility. 4) You would also do well to consider the fundamentals. This company has no debt and 600 million in cash. Do you think that isn't solid and counts for something on the upside? If the company decided to buy back just 3 million of its own shares it would send the stock on another upward trajectory of about 3-5 points causing major damage to the net worth of shorts while not jeopardizing its cash position.

    So here is personal message to you. If you short do so as a trader but not a fundamental investor. I might even join you for a scalp if this stock goes to 33 without any correction.(It will test 33 - you watch and see). However I will not give up my 3400 shares until this stock gets to 40. Furthermore you should have seen that it was oversold. Making its way down to 23 was overreaction caused by fear selling. If it was at 35, I could see it selling down before earnings to around 32. That's a 10% correction and not out of line with what happens to cyclical stocks before earnings. However to go from 29 down to 23 (a 30% correction) was over the top. Someone who was objective should have seen that. Like many longs you got to emotional and you let your emotions play you. Best of luck to you but you should know that the substance of your posting isn't taken very seriously until you show some objectivity.

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    • Eric

      IMHO you have forgotten what is the objective of a stock trader, stock investor or stock owner.


      Plenty of people were right about the fluffiness of the Dot Com companies but they were wrong in their timing and shorted all the way up until they went broke. The difference with OVTI and is the former has real products, real earnings, real markets and real buyers. Furthermore it is supplying to a red hot revolutionizing business model.

      You cite "channel stuffing" and argue in a very tertiary way to derive that conclusion. Even if it is true your concern is not enough. Everyday new products come out which are and will be using BSI technology. OVTI is the leader and you are betting against the trend. If you went long right now you could pick up at least a scalp but unfortunately your pride won't let you.

    • erickarr Feb 28, 2011 3:52 PM Flag

      the ultra bulls were expecting asp's to be in the 1.80's or greater--i bet they're selling or have sold.

    • somebody asked the fools the very thing?

      How did revenue rise 11 percent to $265.7 million with 194 million units as compared to 185 while asp only increase from 1.29 to 1.37 without stuffing the channel?

    • You're the one full of BS, numbnuts.
      For one thing they have to keep their customers secrets. In the consumers electronics business if you don't, you won;t have any customers but then since you don't know anything, you wouldn't know that either I suppose.
      And second yield info is one of the most closely guarded secrets in any chip company, even within the company walls and is always need to know basis only. This is because it tells the competition too much about your pricing and the customers too much about pricing too. But again you being the dumba$$ you are, you wouldn't have a clue to that either.

    • PCs are NOT going anywhere, anytime soon.
      The tablet market is a bit hyped. Once people realize that you can't do real work on them, the hype will fade somewhat.

    • Making money by shorting a stock requires one of four things:

      (a) an ability to successfully predict the near-term price fluctuations of the stock,

      (b) awareness of an Achilles' heel for the company that is not yet publicly known and is not currently reflected in the share price,

      (c) a basic insight to the effect that the stock or its sector is grossly overvalued and is in bubble mode, or

      (d) pure luck.

      I have absolutely no aptitude for (a), and I suspect that most people who claim to be able to repeatedly do (a) are not really able to do it with any more success than would be achieved by pure chance.

      A few people are able to do (b), but this requires either insider knowledge or a lot of detective work. If someone here knows an Achilles heel for OVTI that isn't currently publicly known, I'd appreciate it if they'd share it with the rest of us. Of course, the people most likely to discover such an Achilles' heel are usually skilled hedge fund managers who don't waste time posting on message boards. And they have no need to bash the stock because they know that the Achilles' heel they've discovered will eventually cause the share price to drop a lot. Over the last couple of years, some people here have claimed that new products or technologies from Samsung or Aptina or Sony constituted an Achilles' heel for OmniVision, and that one of these competitors would soon crush the company, but this hasn't happened yet.

      An awareness that a specific stock or an entire sector is in bubble mode (c) is something that a wise person can achieve pretty easily. However, even a wise person can have a hard time pinpointing the top in real time. In late 1999 and early 2000 it was pretty clear that most types of technology stocks were grossly overvalued, but if one had shorted a basket of tech stocks in late 1999, one would likely have been forced to cover at a loss while the NASDAQ continued to rocket upward over the next few months, even though his basic thesis would soon be proven right. At the moment, OVTI doesn't appear cheap to me. But at the same time it doesn't appear to be grossly overvalued or in bubble mode, either. Maybe OVTI will go into bubble mode one day, but it ain't there yet.

      One can make money by shorting based on pure luck (d), but it's hard to make luck work for you repeatedly.

      • 2 Replies to goutah3006
      • erickarr Feb 27, 2011 4:36 PM Flag

        goutah you may be an investor, but, as you admit, you're no trader.
        first, sam, sony and aptina are now ahead of ovt. aptina owns the phone space based on revenues, sam's catching up with it, and sony beat ovt on revs (not units sold) regardless of end market. and the combined effect of all 3 competitors is just getting started.

        among other indicators and based on current industry research, i use a combination of "overbought" indicators and max/current pain to decide when to short and when to cover. use to document my moves on these boards. rarely lost but i wait for tons of hype and overbought to short usually based on a rumor that's circulating or an anomaly that can't be explained (like how come w/ huge increase in revs and proportion of highest resolutions sold, how come asp only rose from 1.29 to 1.37 and margins--considering inventory writedowns--remained flat?)

        in the past, in retrospect, when you criticized tina for having a sell on ovt when it was at 10 down to 4, i kept thinking, does goutah know the meaning of "hindsight is always 20/20?" at the time, i did not agree w/ tina (i was shocked it got below 10 but it seemed like it wanted to go lower and i'm not one for fighting a trend on huge volume) but i understood why she felt that way.

        now, i see the competition mounting and no more drawingboard tech to hype. i feel ovt may have seen its best days. jmho.

        the blowout q2 and q3 guidance a few months ago did not seem to elevate the price even though a lot of chip peers were making new highs daily. that should mean something to you. and lastly, a lot of traders view a hold as a sell and go find something worth buying (something you'd categorize as a buy v. hold).

        but i still enjoy reading your post. enjoy your day nelson. :o)

      • Good post. I actually think a scalp from shorting this stock could be effective. Nothing goes straight up. There are points of resistance but the trader better set stop losses or look out.

    • erickarr Feb 26, 2011 12:46 PM Flag

      a lesson for you. shorts are hedged w/ options so they don't lose when the price goes up. they buy the options cheap when they're way otm. or they're institutional longs using a short as a hedge.
      i've made money on a short and later after the pps has bounced back, i've sold my hedge for a profit too. i make money on the ups and downs, just not the downs.

      and as far as buybacks, ovt needs to do them to offset all the eps dilution from execs exercising options. they tend to buyback right b4 the price falls, last time they bought around 17 b4 it fell to 4. i was short from 26 all the way down to 4 btw. you'd think they'd have bought at 4 like me.

      and they do have debt too.

      recently, the fact it went down from 29 to 22.06 (an intraday low)just shows how easy it is to manipulate this pos. good stocks don't lend themselves to something like that. being objective, i was able to see this.

    • erickarr Feb 26, 2011 12:26 PM Flag

      i was right. the fact asp only rose from 1.29 to 1.37 when total revenues and sales of higher resolution increased dramatically and demand supposedly exceeded supply can only mean stuffing occurred. the reported q was stuffed and the guidance assumes they can stuff the channels again for the current q. they stuffed so they could meet their numbers and cover up bad yields. there was no improvement in yields other than that associated with inventory write-downs and execs said not to expect further yield improvements. and now sony, samsung, and aptina are all coming out with bsi to create more competition.

      • 2 Replies to erickarr
      • "I was right"? oh eric you need psychological help!

      • Everyone knows that semi/tech related products are subject to asp. A case in point was MU. Back in 1999 MU hit a high of $86. However, the anticipation for lower margins due to more supply was predicted and as soon as the reality hit the stock plummeted eventually to about $8 a share. The same was true with just about every semi related stock and it didn't matter if it was in th ebusiness of DRAM or Programmable logic or flash memory. Fast forward to now. OVTI business is booming. Simply check out its cash from year over year. That does not accumulate without a growth in business profitability.I see accumulation and not cash burn. ASP's are only one way to determine the health of the company. Many companies will actually lower ASP's to force the competitors out of the business. If you cannot make profit at $1 how will you make it at 80 cents? As small investors you and I do absolutely nothing to influence the stock price. Only the money managers have that kind of influence. From what happened on Thursday and Friday, those sources are extremely satisfied.

        You can go with the leader or you can go with the competitors but someone will make the profit and treasure the cash. Until things change drastically OVTI is the clear winner. That Sony would want a piece of the action proves to me how profitable is the future.

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