Who here thinks it's actually worth asking such a question? The stock's near-term future price behavior, including whether it will "pop" a day or two before earnings, is COMPLETELY UNPREDICTABLE. You might as well try predicting whether a gambler playing craps in Vegas will roll the hard eight on his next try.
Nobody knows whether it will pop before earnings, or whether it will pop after earnings, or whether it will continue to crater before earnings, or whether it will crater some more after earnings. A bunch of people will make a bunch of predictions, and if one of those predictions happens to be right, that person will claim prophetic powers after the fact.
Great thread. Last point first - YES, there are externals that have to trouble you, but some of those old cliches encapsulate wisdom.
"Wall of worry" as in "stocks need a wall of worry if they're to produce big gains" is one such.
Much more importantly, yes this was another trying week, esp. for tech stock owners, BUT that 10% clip in one day - you have to choose among manipulation, insider info (to the extent that its different), a genuine change in OVTI's prospects ... or ?
I can't make that number work - period.
I've been short Research in Motion most of the last year. Shorts DO have to cover, ... and while there's always some smartie you does it on a down day, wringing the last few pennies out of his/her "savvy," there are zillions of examples of shorts getting burned on a "the sector got cheap" run-up.
Obviously, the call will be pretty darn important, and I don't know how good the CEO's "spin" and "think on his feet" skills are.
Last, Samsung looks like Apple's enemy du jour - and I think this battle will persist for some time. That's a HUGE plus for OVTI. The last Apple release seems to have found THE CAMERA to be near "ground zero" for "coolness." I don't see Apple sticking its neck out (YES, multiple suppliers is good in the abstract), risking even a negative couple of lines in reviews or the gazillion forums and posts around. That is, OVTI has to keep looking over its shoulder, but at this point it's in darn good shape.
When the stock price runs counter to everything else, one has some great opportunities for profit$.
Was sitting at about 16 just before they raised earnings estimates, and also was sitting at about 16 before it was determined OVT was in the new iPad. Both times the stock popped over 17. I would say a 15% pop is quite likely before earnings.