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Mylan N.V. Message Board

  • chart2001 chart2001 Dec 6, 2011 12:24 PM Flag

    S&P five star on myl read

    We forecast revenue growth of about 11% in
    2012, from the $6.1 billion that we estimate for
    2011, with projected strength in generics sales
    in North America and Asia/Pacific more than
    offsetting expected ongoing weakness in European
    markets.We see new products such as
    generic versions of Zyprexa, Provigil, Plavix,
    Singulair and Diovan as key growth drivers. In
    all, MYL has some 165 ANDAs awaiting FDA review,
    of which 43 represent potential firstto-
    file opportunities with six months of marketing
    exclusivity. Volume should also be bolstered
    by expansion into new treatments for respiratory
    ä We look for gross margins to show modest expansion
    from the 47.5% that we forecast for
    2011, reflecting projected higher volume and
    productivity enhancements.We also see tight
    control of SG&A costs and R&D spending,
    helped by ongoing merger synergies. Interest
    expense should also decline, in our view.
    ä After an indicated adjusted tax rate slightly
    higher than the 27.0% that we see for 2011, we
    forecast operating EPS of $2.35 for 2012, up
    from the $2.00 that we estimate for 2011.
    Investment Rationale/Risk
    ä We believe MYL's efforts to expand through acquisitions
    and internal growth has led to its
    present status as the world's third largest
    generics and specialty pharmaceutical company.
    Key acquisitions made in recent years include
    Bioniche Pharma, an Ireland-based maker
    of injectable drugs; Matrix Laboratories, a
    leading producer of active pharmaceutical ingredients;
    and Merck KGaA's generic business.
    The latter has especially broadened Mylan's
    geographic reach and provided access to inhouse
    raw materials and generic biologics.We
    see MYL as uniquely positioned to benefit from
    the robust growth that we forecast for the overall
    global generics market.
    ä Risks to our recommendation and target price
    include problems integrating acquisitions, as
    well as cash flow risks that could threaten
    MYL's ability to manage its heavy debt load.
    ä Our 12-month target price of $29 applies a modest
    premium to peers multiple of 12.3X to our
    2012 EPS estimate. Our discounted cash flow
    model, which assumes aWACC of 8% and perpetuity
    growth of 1%, also indicates intrinsic
    value of about $29.

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