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Mylan, Inc. Message Board

  • BRIANHUNT51 BRIANHUNT51 Feb 23, 1998 11:23 AM Flag

    short interest 2

    According to big charts still show myl shorts at 19.6 anybody got any more recent numbers??

    • Mark,
      Thanks for forwarding the info - explains a lot of whats going on and how they stand for the future. I don't think ANYONE is working on as many ANDAs! It will be intesting to watch this play out.
      Thanks again,

    • after seeing the heated battle raging back and forth on this message board, it's become more apparent why so much of the outstanding shares have been sold short. it should be interesting either way.

      the bull case: the last time generic pricing got aggressive was when ethical drug manufacturers basically decided they
      wanted to control a much larger share of the market after a drug came off patent. essentially, they waged a scorched earth campaign
      and essentially killed profits for the entire industry. but now, with the exception of BMY and PNU, all of these in-house
      operations have been shuttered, and if one looks at the history of the industry prior to this period, pricing and profits have actually
      been relatively good. while this doesn't necessarily imply a more benign pricing environment this time just because it happened
      before, it does lend credibility to the argument that, left to its own devices, the generic drug industry will operate in such a
      fashion as to generate good profitability for all of its members.

      i know, i know. there are few blockbuster drugs coming off patent in 1998, and with the ethical drug companies becoming far
      more litigious, doesn't waxman-hatch (and its automatic 30 month stay) indicate a long period of relatvively few blockbuster
      drugs? sure it does, but it may not matter if pricing stays reasonable. in addition, i would point out that these guys can make a
      killing on small products where there is little or no competition, and there are still many off-patent drugs without generic
      competition.

      one last point: there have been some political rumblings that waxman-hatch might be up for review in the next legislative
      session. although ethical pharmaceutical companies have a powerful incentive to keep the status quo, generic manufacturers are sure
      to press hard on this issue, particularly since it could be a large crowd pleaser (i.e., stick it to the big drug cos.). but i
      wouldn't want to make a wager on that play. instead, play the earnings surprise game: operating earnings this quarter will most
      likely beat consensus estimates, and it's probably worth a trade.

    • So . . . they've spent the money for the ANDA. What should they do? Market the product and break even, or not market it and lose the ANDA investment? Hardly a choice here! Dying or not, Mylan will more than break even on this product. If they expected to lose money, why bother? All generics can't be blockbusters. Ever hear of the Cystagon product Mylan manufacturers and distributes worldwide? Not all medicines can be evaluated in dollars and cents.

    • a good ball strike out more times than he hits a home run but when he hits that home run its wonderfull and usually just in the nick of time BASEBALL BUFFS- any body know how many times Babe Ruth struck out the yr he hit his 60?? Please tell me!! also wasnt there a fella who beat this and how many times did he strike out that yr.??

    • its a dying drug mylan will be lucky to breakeven on
      this dog.
      k2b1

    • The brand Toradol tablet sales were a little over $40 Million in 1996. There are more generics on the market competing with brands that have sales under $40 Million! Too, there is currently only one other generic supplier of this product that I know of. Mylan should do well with Ketorolac. It should p[rove to be a profitable addition to their bottom line.

    • Somehow, I think I will believe MYL rather than your insightful analysis.

      Mark

    • toradol is a dog that has been replaced by other nsaids.
      hospitals use the injectable form and guess what there
      aint no generic for that.
      reasons drug can only be used a couple of days and most
      doctors have abandoned drug becausssssssse there are
      just toooooooo many better alternatives.
      another useless generic.
      k2b1

    • As of 13 Feb, 20.46m shares short. Interesting game going on in this stock. I can't figure out who'd be shorting the stock
      at these levels, unless they're betting that the non-payment of royalties by Novopharm will drive down the stock. could make
      for a squeeze situation, though, if the stock has been accumulated by value investors who have already factored into their
      valuation the nonpayment of the royalty. Ex the royalty, I don't think anyone is arguing that operating earnings will miss
      expectations. I'm not sure there are many itchy trigger finger managers left in the stock to torpedo the stock if they sue Novopharm for
      nonpayment.

      My two cents.

      • 5 Replies to implied_volatility
      • here's a list of shorts over the last year. month ending shorts 1/15/97 14,689,566 2/14/97 13,715,992 3/14/97 12,385,295
        4/15/97 12,292,770 5/15/97 14,737,742 6/13/97 15,233,256 7/15/97 15,462,582 8/15/97 16,177,465 9/15/97 17,135,462 10/15/97
        18,256,959 11/14/97 18,222,636 12/15/97 19,191,306 1/15/98 19,567,288 the trend is for increasing shorts. but i'm inclined to say, so
        what? for some reason mylan has recently had a high percentage of short interest. over the last year short interest was lowest at
        the end of march and april and the stock went south in that time frame. any other ideas?

      • rwimmer@roanoke.infi.net rwimmer Feb 23, 1998 8:18 PM Flag

        Has Mylan recieved payment from Novopharm or has the situation been resolved at this point?Also could the short player be a big one involving the Pfizer legal intanglement.Someone very smart is out their,to much money not to be.If no-one knows about the novopharm rolality then I could call tomorrow.Thanks Rob

      • You young guys just don't get. I was forced into retirement
        from a famous firm. I'm have been trying to tell the little guys
        that this stock has forces bigger than I am allowed to talk about. Trust me This one is for the little investor( under 3000
        shares). I told edveryone to buy rpc at 10, I'm not just chasing
        Amy, as my son would say. I'm no longer a money making machine for the firm. Screw them beat them at their own game.

      • I called NYSE and they verified your number (BigCharts must be out of date). This means approx 890k more short shares in a month. What NYSE couldn't tell me was how many of those were shorted before MYL's announcement at end of Jan.

        I am surprised that with heavy volume in Feb. there was not significant short covering. This is good news and should protect MYL from any significant reduction in price (>15%) from today's level.

        Mark

      • Hopefully thats all the shorts will make. that. 20.5 is one hell of a % to be short on 121mil outstanding(give or take a few) remember myl has a buyback in place and it has the cash to support some of that buyback!!

    • As of 13 Feb, 20.46m shares short. Interesting game going on in this stock. I can't figure out who'd be shorting the stock
      at these levels, unless they're betting that the non-payment of royalties by Novopharm will drive down the stock. could make
      for a squeeze situation, though, if the stock has been accumulated by value investors who have already factored into their
      valuation the nonpayment of the royalty. Ex the royalty, I don't think anyone is arguing that operating earnings will miss
      expectations. I'm not sure there are many itchy trigger finger managers left in the stock.

      My two cents.

 
MYL
52.06+0.67(+1.30%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT

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