NVR is a very interesting stock.
I don't know what all sources of data that you can pull up; my particular favorite is to check out the data on Standard & Poors, because it shows what the stock has done for the last 10 years.
I also ran the report off on Reuters.
The return on Assets, Return on Investments, Return on Equity are all outstanding compared to industry averages. But sales growth for the last quarter and the last 12 months are way below the industry average and appear to be drying up.
The short interest on the stock is rising.
The trading volume is declining.
S & P currently has a SELL on the stock.
NVR has had spectacular growth but it is only in a few housing markets in the Eastern states and is running a risk if these markets dry up. 54% of its market is the Baltimore/Washington area.
I have been following PHM myself because it has a much wider market and is building in the retirement home market. But because I am looking for retirement income I have invested in title insurance, FNF, which a friend of mine calls legalized robbery.
One of the great things about SEB is that it is a U.S. based multinational. With the value of the dollar being down in relation to other currencies, the marine division is doing well in shipping American goods to other countries AND being able to bring raw materials to this country. Some of the real glories of this stock are:
The management are the principal shareholders. What is good for us is good for them.
Stock splits can be a way to provide added incentives for management - none of that going on.
If they can not get a good return out of an industry, they will sell off the operation. I remember Seaboard Farms from when they had a poultry plant here in Georgia - they bought our laying hens and roosters for Chicken Soup.
IMHO and a tiny bit of research, SEB is a better investment
Re; Housing--- Is it a bubble now??
Take a look at NVR. price is 743.00 now.
6 month chart NVR vs. SEB.
Looks like to me that if one believes
the housing market will continue to keep
on going full blast this year, now is the
chance to look at NVR since it has backed
down from it's recent highs as happened to
SEB not too long ago.
Good Post Timmerbee. You have been doing your homework :)
Re: EPS. Yahoo on its SEB quote page lists SEB as $166. VectorVest list the EPS at
I am not sure how those numbers are derived, whether from actual or projected or a combination of both.
Interesting time and sales report today around noon. I sold 100 shares yesterday hoping to by them back around 1140 to 1160. I was pleasantly surprised to see the big boys moving their ring through the 1200 mark. Thought it would stay down a little longer. Here I am trying to buy back in as close to my sell of 1185 and can't do it.
Who was it that posted a while back about not understanding why any one would pay over 1200 dollars for a stock. I believe we will see the day when people will kick themselves, saying
" I could have bought that stock for 1200 dollars ".
Keep up the good work gentlemen.
true, P/E wold be 9 if earnings were 133. however, the most recent earnings (first quarter of 2005) were $54 per share. referrign to the yahoo SEB page, you will note after "P/E" the little note "(ttm)". "ttm" means "trailing twelve months". the same goes for the earnings. so, since we are well into 2005, the most recent twelve months' of earnings is up to $166 per share (see the yahoo SEB page), as the first quarter showed very strong growth (once again) over the previous quarter. in fact, it is more than double the earnings of one year earlier.
once again, pointing to strong growth and justifying the large rise in the stock price.
however, i believe that the stock has much more room to move on the upside, as i believe the P/E ratio is too low.
your nervousness about the lofty stock price is not unique; in fact, this is normal and typical behavior. the question to ask yourself is, why have the earnings gone up so fast? is it because sales are increasing? or is it because the management has found a way to reduce costs dramatically?
read the letter to shareholders at the beginning of the 2004 annual report for an excellent view of the overall business. pork is only one portion of the company. they also have a shipping line, which did quite well in 2004; and a commodity trading business, which had huge gains in 2004.
brief examination of the fiancials shows that most of the gain in earnings came from increased sales and prices, with very little comign from lower costs. this company has relatively high fixed costs compared to it's current income, so relatively small changes in total income can have a drastic effect on the profit. this implies RISK - just as increased income has had a disproportionately high effect on earnings, so too can a downward trend make those earnings disappear.
and the perception of risk is one of the reasons the P/E ratio is only 7.
You too deserve thanks from me.
Your post is very informative.
Earning swings of 9.38 to 25.37 to 133.94,
give me a feeling that it can top out soon.
I will keep on looking at same.
S & P has principal business as
Food production: poultry, pork: banking.
Is banking a small part of it's business????
By the way price 1,200.00 divided by earnings
of 133.00 = a p/e of 9. Is this correct what I
did???? Not Important anyway.
definetly a $ 2000 stock this one .management is doing a great job making big profits in this market environment.....meantime it's a wait and strong buy attitude overhere...untill there next qtr results ..and I do expect a sort of Moonshot at around that time...-> $ 1500 per share.
you compare SFD with SEB...well in this situation SEB should be valued with a higher PE than SFD..one which is swimming in a pool of debt...
they have some tax benefits also..which will add some pressure in the net-income also..'4th qtr 2005'.
i recommend you go to the Seaboard website and download their quarterly reports and just write down the corporate earnings for each quarter for the last few years.
to save time, you could also just take a look at the 2004 annual report, which has a nice table showing the annual earnings going back to 2000. look at earnings per share:
now make a yahoo financial chart going back to 2000 and compare the stock price and the earnings. see?
the reason the stock is going up is that the company earnings are going up, and going up fast. suprisingly, it wasn't so very long ago that this company was losing money or barely breaking even.
then take a look at the yahoo quote page and you will see the P/E number of about 7.5. that's the price of the stock (1200! yay!) divided by the earnings per share. this is an important and very basic metric to judge how expensive any stock is (assuming the company actually has earnings). the reason that most of the investors in SEB are taking that risk is due to what is by most measures an extraordinarily low P/E. that is, there is a belief taht the company should have a P/E that is higher, more in line with other companies doing similar things; for instance, smithfield foods (SFD) trades at a P/E of about 12. the P/E is determined solely by investor sentiment.
the value in SEB is that 1. earnings will hopefully continue their upward trajectory, resulting in a higher price, and 2. that as a result of increased confidence in the company by investors, the P/E ratio will rise to somethng like 12, multiplying any earnings by a larger number. the combination of 1 and 2 is an exponential growth in stock price (yay!) as the earnings of 1 are mulitplied by the increasing P/E of 2.
for my part, i'm pefectly happy for SEB to subsequently exhibit a slow and steady growth in earnings, well below the rocket-like increases of the last two years. i am much more interested in seeing the P/E ratio rise to 12; that alone makes the stock a $2000 per share animal. a raging boar, if you will.
You tell me the range from this point on????
Is cost of shipping going up????
There must be more than Pork and Shipping
that is making this stock go up.
From 2003 to now stock has gone up 600.
Before that stock was flat.
Tell me more.... OK.....
Bullethead, looks like you are totally green as far as trading goes. I have 11 years in this and still consider myself an amateur. Unless you take time to educate yourself, be prepared to loose your shirt very soon.