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Seaboard Corp. Message Board

  • nlevis2 nlevis2 Dec 20, 2005 11:23 PM Flag

    Hey Slideman

     

    I remember your posts back in the day this summer when I bought 200 shares at 1200 or so... rode em up to 1600 with some trading along the way, got nervous and sold. Saw it go to 1800 got jealous, waited till it came in and @ 1580 I bought back 100 shares. Felt good to get back to my roots b/c I like the story.

    Do you have any other good stocks like this with a similar valuation/pattern ... I find a lot of good stocks get overbought short term, then quickly oversold again and make for good 3-6 month investments... PGR in January was another channel type stock that did this...

    You did well on this and I wondered if you had any other nice TA/Value buys with nice growth to share with us here on the Pig board.

    PS: way to go here in 2005 all you brave longs.

    This topic is deleted.
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    • nlevis,

      I'm currently still holding SEB. I'm trying to determine the next peak via Elliot wave/fibonacci analysis, but having some issues. One of my peers, who also does quite a bit of TA analysis, sent my a plot which shows the waves since 2003 (waves within waves). The accuracy of the predictions blew me away. I didn't think to plot the waves back two years. It accurately picked the peak right before the correction back in May. I'm currently working the model (and just order some more books yesterday on fibonacci sequences) in order to project this better. I've become a strong believer in Elliot waves and Fibonacci sequences.

      OK, but to the point ... I think SEB has some good juju left in it. At least to go to 2200 from here. However, there is a big, big correction coming for SEB. Somewhere between the 2500 and 2900 price level. Thus, I'm trying to compute this better. His TA analysis shows the big correction coming at 2900.

      I just purchased back into VLO. Before the split (I purchased in the 100 range) it had a computed fair market value price of 135 or better. If earnings are good (Q4), I firmly expect it to go to 150 (75 after the recent split) by the end of March. Note, it's currently trading in the 52 range (split last week).

      I'm also holding FTO and SOSA. I purchased SOSA at the bottom of it's channel (after it's correction) at about 9.7. It's now at 11. Fair market value is computed at between 14 and 15. Should get to this by Mid March as well. FTO is currently trading at 40. Fair market value is in the 55-60 range. I expect it to peak to about 68. I purchased it at about 34 near the end of November. Oil is going to have a powerful run in 2006. Expect many of the non-blue chippers to do 100% or better, end to end in 2006. If you play the position swings (by in Jan, sell in March, buy back in in May and sell in July), you can really do well.

      I'll try to keep the board up to date on my thoughts and holdings, if you like, as we cruise through the year. Let me know if you're interested.

      slide

      • 4 Replies to slide_rule24
      • slide: VLO has been a top performer, but oil appears to be slowing down due to sufficient availability... i made money in vlo in '05, (could have made more had i not sold and rebought within the white whash period)... but i am wondering whether 2006 might not slow the refiners... of course, there's always the summer driving period.... what made you buy it for 2006 ???

      • Slide,

        I want to thank you for your diligence and work on all this research! I have admitted before that I know very little about charts and TA. I tend to rely on Fundamental, patterns and common sense. Because of your posting you have given me a curiosity and desire to become more educated re TA. Would you consider posting some of your charts so we all could look at what you are doing and learn at the same time?
        I was on a board last week where a " techie : was waxing on about his research and included a link to a server where he had uploaded his charts. I could see what he was talking about and it even made sense. This site had free 500 MB accounts, but I forgot the name of it. I am sure there are others that someone might know about. He posted a disclaimer along with his charts warning people that it was not a reccomendation just his hobby and not to depend on any of his calculations.
        Well, just an idea!
        Have a very merry Christmas everyone!
        pj

      • Slide: You have helped us tremendously; Thank you very much for sharing your knowledge.

        Hope you have a wonderful Holiday! Luca

 
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