William C. Denby III is the senior Vice President of Commercial Operations. He is in command of sales and marketing for Santarus. The week ending May 25, 2007 Zegrid TRx were 16,460. Sales have reached 0.75% market share. This is significantly below where the market expects sales to be at this time. As evidence of the market�s reaction, I present at $5.60 stock price at 9:41 AM on June 6, 2007. Sales are growing but at a slow pace. What I find troubling is this is the man whose position requires optimism, enthusiasm, high energy and a sheer will to see this product through to the end. At this point Mr. Proehl and Ms Crawford have discontinued their monthly stock selling programs. This indicates optimism for the future. They feel diversified enough to keep as much skin in the game as they can. Both hold a great number of shares. Mr. Denby does not and has increased his monthly sales plan to 5,400 shares per month. He is selling more shares now at these prices than he did when the stock was much higher. He has insider information. As a stock holder, I feel uncomfortable with this man in charge of the marketing effort with Santarus. Taking shares off the table, indicates a pesimism and sends a message of failure and a lack of confidence to the shareholders as well as the sales force. This is the opposite of what Santarus needs in this position and especially at this time. It is time to change direction in this position. I�d like to see someone who has been in the field. Someone with a creative spirit who is inspiring and filled with optimism; someone who has more recent sales experience. Mr. Denby�s results and actions indicate a continuance of mediocrity which is reflected in the stock price.
No problem Muz
As you said, good and bad
These numbers are up and down even in normal weeks.
Last time I looked .. this year, Jan 12 through May 18 we were up 42% in 19 weeks. Since Sept. 8 2006 we were up 80% over 35 weeks. Doesn't seem that bad too me.
What's consensus on this board for this weeks agenda, are we now supposed to trade on next weeks numbers ...
In all likely hood the PPI market will be way up next week .... it's a 5 day work week to boot.
How about something a little longer term for those who have a job and can't watch the markets or haunt bull boards all day long. Something like long term risk / reward at these levels.
What's the down side risk from here ?
Or is it a matter of hitting the reversal spot on ... for bragging rights.
cheers all ..
You cannot simply chop off one day. Sales are usually impacted, but typically not at the percentage of days that were part of a holiday. That is why market share is a better number to look at during those weeks. You would want to see if you are doing better or worse than those in your category.
Muzeger, I'm believe your #s are off a bit. In fact the 6/01 week had only four selling days in it due to the holiday. Whereas the week prior had 5 selling days. If you take the Trx #s from the last week(6/01) vs. the prior week you come up with:
Trx averaged 3831/day last week vs 3292/day in prior week.
Not bad actually. And maybe, we're starting to see the effect of the new Reps that Proehl predicted would begin to show up in June, in the last couple of CCalls.
Thanks for the post. Please keep posting these weekly numbers good or bad. I guess the numbers you posted do confirm why we have been seeing the drop in stock price. Unless they truly pull a rabbit out of the proverbial hat they will miss the Q2 revs.
If you simplistically look at it: one day of a seven day week represents 14%. Their NRx came in 13% less than the previous week. I guess the best spin any optimist can put on these numbers is that 6 days to 6 days they held their ground. But we are looking for much better than this aren�t we?
"but one thing is for sure that the product wont work as well as Zegerid."
You keep on shooting yourself in the foot! What's the whole point you're trying to make if you then conclude that the product is worse than Zegerid? It took so many posts just for you to answer the question of how you think TAP's product will affect Zegerid.
Do you know the TAP investigators? If so, then share how exactly this medication is supposed to work with complete logic - I know that's tough for you - or maybe you don't know. You just admit that it's extended release - what I claimed it was. That is the main mode of action of this product, higher dose, extended release.
Rejnishit & Muzner:
Do you know investigators working on the TAK 390 study? All you keep quoting is that the product is an extended/modified release version of a ppi that you get when you google TAK 390. TAP's new product is trying to be spun as a modified release delivery system but from what I hear the NEW esolanzoperazole extended release product will be a enterically coated esolansp. with an antacid buffer. They will try to spin this a modified release/extended release PPI and use their marketing ploys to do so. IT may work (meaning their marketing) it may not, but one thing is for sure that the product wont work as well as Zegerid. However, I continue to short due to lack of patience with management and track record with stock. I will stop shorting after it hits 5.00; which it most likely will this week.
Muzner: Remember TAP's agreement after giving SNTS so much cash for right to IR PPI; well they cancelled that and went with their own. I am just suggesting with the luck SNTS has they will probably lose this contract. Who knows, just a guess.
You said "So like I said enjoy this stock especially when SGP drops Zegerid instead of buying this thing." If you said this before I did not catch it.
Can you tell us why would SGP pay $15M for the rights to take Zegerid OTC and then drop it a little over 6 months hence? Are they in the business of throwing their money away? Or are you saying the medecine does not work and SGP is merely cutting their losses? Which is it in your opinion is going to cause them to do this? Whatever competing product TAP is developing isn't going to sway SGP to abandone their move to take Z OTC will it?
Or are you saying that executing the OTC deal obligates SGP to have to buy SNTS? If that is what you mean who said one thing must lead to the other?
peanut, I'm trying to see if you're able of any logical discussion where you are able to support your viewpoint. Unfortunately you're not. Even Lynn has covered her short. Remember, this is not about longs vs. shorts. This is about being able to support your claims. Look at your statement and how little sense it makes. All delayed release PPIs have an enteric coat to survive the stomach's acidic environment. Thus, implying that the TAP product is delayed release, not immediate release that would compete with Zegerid. Also, here's couple of quotes from the links I have in the previous reply.
"Instead, TAP, a joint venture between Abbott Laboratories and Japan's Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, will focus on developing two other experimental heartburn medicines. The most advanced, TAK-390, a modified-release formula designed to be effective over a longer period of time, is in final, Phase 3 human studies. "
Extended release is different from SNTS's immediate release.
"A phase 3 study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of TAK-390 (60mg QD and 90 mg QD) and an active comparator, Lansoprazole (30 mgQD) on healing of erosive esophagitis "
This shows it's a higher dose product - Zegerid is not a higer dose PPI.
Bottomline: I'm right and you don't have a clue. Why not post any substantiative comments or links to support your view? Probably because they don't exist. Do you really believe that you add any useful information to this board? Why hasn't lynn supported any of your comments? Probably cause she knows they're all wrong...