I haven't posted here in about a year.....At the time, I pointed out that this is a really tough market (PPI). It is hard to make money when you are discounting your drug by 70+%, and that is what is happening in this market.
Nothing could be further from the truth. If you look at the delayed release PPI market, none of them have any real advantage over generic omeprazole. However, more than $13 billion of proprietary PPIs were still sold. Basically the companies with large sales forces just hit the physicians with deceptive research and samples so the MDs give out samples and then write for the same proprietary med. Zegerid is different from generic PPIs. Whether or not it's difference is very significant is up for debate since most patients wouldn't need an IR PPI and if NAB is that big a deal is up to you to decide.
Obviously the company isn't doing well but I wouldn't short it because all a big pharma has to do is wait until this company falls apart, aquire zegerid on the cheap and then plug it into a large salesforce where it'd certainly be a profit generator. Santarus just doesn't have the salesforce and whatever they're doing just hasn't been enough to get sales going.
Zegerid obviously has some value otherwise Fred Hassan wouldn't have been involved. He's really delivered in the pharma biz so shorting SNTS and betting against him likely isn't the smartest move...