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Santarus, Inc. (SNTS) Message Board

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  • nowwheretogo22004 nowwheretogo22004 Mar 7, 2011 7:47 AM Flag

    i don't get it.

    This stock is just reluctant to turn the corner, but it's still really a wait and see stock. I follow it TOO closely because I overbought it.

    In the short term, here's only the negative factors. I've touted the all the positive factors before.

    1. How stable or capable is Pharming ( They are $.12 a share.

    2. Rhucin path with FDA is still undefined.

    3. We all saw the article on stomach acid drugs lowering magnesium for those who take it.

    4. $26M in Q.4 revenue and ONLY $110M is sales projected for next year. What is up with that? Where's the Cycloset growth? This projection is a huge lack of faith in growing these sales quickly if at all.

    5. No profit projection in 2011. They must be planning on burning more cash on the patent fight or require more cash for existing projects then we've been told in the past.

    6. Will Ultesa stumble like Rhucin did?

    #6 is my weakest argument. I haven't really had time to to my DD on Ultesa like I should. I do really like the pipeline. This stock also has the cash to get through this, but they are clearly still stumbing around and I have no intention of buying more without bigger dips, which I hope we don't see or some real positive news. I'm glad that they do a lot of investor conferences, because the pipeline is a very good story. At this point, you are just going to build followers, not buyers. There is clearly no need to rush in to this stock at this point.

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    • Really, I've seen buyouts of companies with much less. IDEV and CYPB.

      SNTS has an enterprise value of around 130 million with 110 million in sales projected for 2011 and break-even or better earnings likely for 2011. Very nice diversified pipeline. Rhucin is approved in Europe and it should be approved in the US if the trial the FDA wants is sufficient.

      Cycloset was launched halfway through the 4th q. with holidays. SNTS says it should see higher sales in the 2nd half of 2011.

      Glumetza is growing (SNTS will likely pay DEPO a sales milestone this year).

      Budesinide NDA may be filed by end of year pending safety trial data.

      Again, show me a better value with regard to sales vs. enterprise value and nice diversified pipeline. Dollar for dollar this may be the best. Please post any you know of. See my recent post to Bucksave.

      Good luck


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